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Round Rock Today
By the People, for the People
Texas Senate Race Tightens as Talarico Gains Ground on GOP Rivals
Talarico polling stronger than Beto O'Rourke in 2018, but Republicans still favored to hold seat
Mar. 12, 2026 at 3:09pm
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State Representative James Talarico is starting the general election campaign for Texas's U.S. Senate race in a stronger polling position than former Representative Beto O'Rourke in 2018, whose run was seen as a high point for Texas Democrats. However, Republicans are still favored to hold the seat, with prediction markets and election forecasters giving the GOP the edge.
Why it matters
O'Rourke's 2018 campaign against Republican Senator Ted Cruz is the closest Democrats have come to winning statewide in Texas in recent years, fueling Democratic optimism about the chances of Texas becoming competitive. Dreams of a blue Texas haven't come to fruition, as Democrats have continued to fall short in recent years as the state has again drifted rightward. But many in the party believe Talarico could again make the state competitive.
The details
Talarico secured the Democratic nomination in Texas earlier in March, avoiding a runoff against Representative Jasmine Crockett. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Senator John Cornyn will face off in a Republican runoff in May, as neither candidate received 50 percent of the vote. Polls have shown a tight race between Talarico and both Cornyn and Paxton, a contrast to the stronger leads Republican Senator Ted Cruz held over Beto O'Rourke in early 2018 polling.
- The Texas Republican runoff is set for May 26, 2026.
- The general election will be held on November 3, 2026.
The players
James Talarico
A state representative who secured the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate race in Texas.
Beto O'Rourke
A former U.S. Representative whose 2018 campaign against Republican Senator Ted Cruz is seen as a high point for Texas Democrats in recent years.
Ken Paxton
The Texas Attorney General who will face off against Senator John Cornyn in the Republican runoff for the U.S. Senate race.
John Cornyn
The incumbent U.S. Senator from Texas who will face off against Ken Paxton in the Republican runoff.
Ted Cruz
The Republican U.S. Senator from Texas who defeated Beto O'Rourke in the 2018 election.
What they’re saying
“In 2018, Sen. Ted Cruz only beat Beto by 2.6% and down ballot we lost 2 congressional seats, 2 state senate seats, 12 state house seats and majorities on four of the 13 courts of appeals. The stakes in the midterms elections are sky high and President Trump wants to pick up five new US House seats in Texas this year. For that to be possible, we need the strongest statewide campaign at the top of the ballot. The Democrats nominated their strongest candidate for U.S. Senate. The question is, will Republicans nominate John Cornyn, who is unquestionably our strongest candidate?”
— Matt Mackowiak, Cornyn campaign senior adviser
“That Cornyn, a mainstream Republican who is a better general election option for Republicans than the scandal-plagued and hard-edged Paxton, is still in the game means that we still view Texas as a Likely Republican race. Cornyn and Paxton will now have to fight it out for another two and a half months before a decisive May 26 runoff (although the president says he wants to end this runoff, more on that below). Waiting for the winner is Talarico, a mainstream Democrat who we expect will be printing money as a fundraiser but who faces the challenge of trying to win statewide in what is still a clearly Republican-leaning state.”
— Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, Sabato's Crystal Ball
“This movement is about whether the people will hold the power in this state and this country. We launched this underdog campaign six months ago in my hometown of Round Rock, Texas, and since then, tens of thousands of Texans have shown up to rally with us in every corner of the state.”
— James Talarico, State Representative
“James Talarico thinks 'God is nonbinary,' wants to lay a welcome mat on our southern border, and would prioritize the rights of our 'trans community.' He is radically out of touch with Texans and they will not vote for this in November.”
— Samantha Cantrell, NRSC Regional press secretary
What’s next
The Texas Republican runoff is set for May 26, 2026. The winner will face off against Democrat James Talarico in the general election on November 3, 2026.
The takeaway
While Talarico is polling stronger than Beto O'Rourke did in 2018, Republicans remain favored to hold the Texas Senate seat. However, the race is tightening, and Texas could become a key battleground that determines control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.
