Texas Democrats Eye Senate Upset as Talarico Leads GOP Rivals

Moderate Democrat James Talarico polling ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Senator John Cornyn in key Senate race

Published on Mar. 9, 2026

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Texas Democrats are eyeing a potential Senate upset as a new poll shows moderate Democratic candidate James Talarico leading both potential Republican opponents, Attorney General Ken Paxton and Senator John Cornyn, in the race for the state's open Senate seat. Talarico, a first-term state representative, won the Democratic primary last week and will face the winner of the GOP runoff in November.

Why it matters

Democrats have not won statewide office in Texas since 1994, but the party is hoping to pick up key seats in the midterm elections. If Talarico can pull off an upset victory, it would be a major boost for Democrats' efforts to regain control of the Senate and undermine President Donald Trump's policy agenda.

The details

According to a new poll, Talarico would beat either Cornyn or Paxton, albeit by a slim margin, and is more popular than both candidates. The poll of 576 Texas voters, conducted by Public Policy Polling on behalf of Senate Majority PAC, found that if pitted against Cornyn, Talarico would win with 44% of the vote to Cornyn's 43%. If Paxton stands against him, Talarico would garner 47% of the vote to Paxton's 45%. However, both of Talarico's projected victories fall within the poll's +/- 4.1 percentage-point margin of error.

  • Talarico won the state's Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate on March 3, 2026, beating Representative Jasmine Crockett with 53% of the vote.
  • The Republican primary runoff between Paxton and Cornyn is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
  • The midterm elections will take place in November 2026.

The players

James Talarico

A moderate Democratic state representative first elected in 2018, Talarico won the party's Senate primary and will face the winner of the Republican runoff in November.

Ken Paxton

The Texas Attorney General, Paxton is one of the two Republican candidates in the runoff for the Senate nomination.

John Cornyn

The incumbent Texas Senator, Cornyn is the other Republican candidate in the runoff for the Senate nomination.

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What they’re saying

“Thank you, Texas. Last night, in a historic failure for John Cornyn, he failed to get nearly 60% of the GOP vote after spending $100 million. It's time to finish the job in the runoff. Help me fire John Cornyn once and for all.”

— Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General (X)

“This movement is about whether the people will hold the power in this state and this country. We launched this underdog campaign six months ago in my hometown of Round Rock, Texas, and since then, tens of thousands of Texans have shown up to rally with us in every corner of the state.”

— James Talarico, Texas State Representative (Twitter)

What’s next

The Republican primary runoff between Paxton and Cornyn is scheduled for May 26, 2026. The winner will face Talarico in the November general election.

The takeaway

This race highlights the shifting political landscape in Texas, where Democrats are making inroads and hoping to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the Republican establishment. Talarico's strong polling performance suggests the party's strategy of fielding moderate, economically-focused candidates could pay dividends in the midterms.