Conflicting Polls Show Key Texas Primary Races Too Close to Call

Dueling surveys provide differing pictures in Democratic Senate primary and other key contests

Published on Feb. 26, 2026

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New polls are providing conflicting numbers in the Democratic Primary for the U.S. Senate nomination in Texas, with one survey showing Jasmine Crockett leading James Talarico by 12 points, while Talarico's campaign released a poll showing him ahead by 4 points. Experts say the dynamic environment and influx of campaign spending means the race remains highly fluid and unpredictable ahead of the March 3 primary election.

Why it matters

The conflicting poll results highlight the uncertainty and volatility of the Texas primary races, where a number of key contests, including the high-profile Senate race, remain too close to call. This could have significant implications for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate, as well as other statewide offices in Texas.

The details

The University of Texas Politics Project poll showed Crockett leading Talarico 56% to 44%, but with a large 5-point margin of error. Talarico's campaign then released its own internal poll showing him ahead by 4 points. Experts say the influx of campaign spending and dynamic environment means the race remains highly fluid, with voters potentially shifting their support in the final days before the primary.

  • The University of Texas Politics Project poll was conducted around February 16, 2026.
  • The Talarico campaign released its internal poll on February 26, 2026.

The players

Jasmine Crockett

A Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate nomination in Texas.

James Talarico

A Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate nomination in Texas.

James Henson

Director of the University of Texas Politics Project, which conducted one of the conflicting polls.

Chip Roy

A Republican Congressman from Texas who is the front-runner for the GOP nomination for state Attorney General.

John Cornyn

The incumbent Republican U.S. Senator from Texas who is seeking re-election.

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What they’re saying

“We came out of the field in this poll around February 16, a lot of money and by a lot, I mean, and the count, you know, counted in the millions of dollars were going to be spent in these races after we collected this data, so I would not be surprised and nobody should be surprised if there is movement in these numbers.”

— James Henson, Director, University of Texas Politics Project (FOX7 Austin)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

The conflicting poll results in the Texas primary races highlight the highly dynamic and unpredictable nature of the contests, where a surge of late campaign spending could shift voter sentiment in the final days before the March 3 election. This uncertainty underscores the importance of voters staying engaged and informed as they head to the polls.