U.S. Shale Boom Nears Crucial Turning Point

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

The shale-oil revolution that transformed the U.S. into the world's top oil producer is entering a new phase, with production growth expected to peter out in fewer than five years. The issue is that shale well output declines rapidly, with a typical new well in the Permian's Midland Basin seeing production plunge nearly 90% after just three years.

Why it matters

The decline in U.S. shale production growth could erode America's hard-fought lead as the world's top oil producer, potentially opening the door for other major producers like Venezuela to gain more influence in global energy markets.

The details

On average, a shale well produces roughly 80% of its total output within the first two years. Production from a typical new well in the Permian's Midland Basin plunges nearly by 90% after three years, according to the American Petroleum Institute. This rapid decline in output is a key challenge facing the U.S. shale industry as it looks to maintain its dominance.

• The shale-oil revolution transformed the U.S. into the world's top oil producer.