Gas Prices May Soon Start Easing If Ceasefire Holds, Analysts Say

Oil prices plunged after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, potentially providing relief at the pump.

Apr. 8, 2026 at 7:19pm

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An abstract illustration composed of overlapping triangles and rectangles in shades of red, blue, and yellow, conceptually representing the complex factors influencing gas prices.Shifting global oil supply and demand dynamics continue to fuel volatility at the gas pump.Houston Today

With oil prices plunging after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that could allow oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, gas prices at the pump might soon start slowly coming down, according to analysts. However, the analysts caution that the easing of prices is contingent on the ceasefire holding and no further escalation of the conflict.

Why it matters

The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has significantly impacted global oil supply and prices, leading to a sharp rise in gas prices for consumers. Any potential relief at the pump would be welcome news, but the analysts warn that the situation remains fragile and prices could spike again if the ceasefire does not hold.

The details

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading at about $95 mid-day Wednesday, down from nearly $113 a day earlier. Similarly, Brent crude futures tumbled to about $95 from $109 on Tuesday. Analysts expect gas prices to decline by 10 to 20 cents per gallon over the next couple of weeks if the ceasefire holds. However, they caution that the oil market will likely price in higher geopolitical risk in the Middle East, meaning prices may not return to pre-conflict levels even if the strait remains open long-term.

  • On Tuesday, the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.
  • In March, ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to just six per day from about 130 pre-war.

The players

Andy Lipow

President of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.

Patrick De Haan

Head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy.

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What they’re saying

“I expect some relief at the pump starting this weekend, and we might see a decline over the next couple of weeks of between 10 and 20 cents per gallon.”

— Andy Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates

“The oil market isn't going to return to pre-conflict levels because they're going to price in higher geopolitical risk in the Middle East. If Iran was able to shut down the Strait of Hormuz once, they could do it again.”

— Andy Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates

“The EPA requires a lower-volatility blend in warm months to reduce emissions, which is more complex and expensive for refiners to make.”

— Patrick De Haan, Head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy

What’s next

If the ceasefire holds, analysts will continue to monitor the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and any further developments in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran that could impact oil supply and prices.

The takeaway

The potential easing of gas prices is a welcome relief for consumers, but the situation remains fragile and dependent on the ceasefire holding. The conflict has highlighted the vulnerability of global oil supply to geopolitical tensions, and the market is likely to price in higher risk going forward, meaning prices may not return to pre-conflict levels even if the strait remains open.