Texas Electricity Rates Unlikely to Spike Despite Strait of Hormuz Closure

Analysts say summer heat, not foreign conflicts, poses the real risk to Texas electricity prices this year.

Apr. 3, 2026 at 3:34pm

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An abstract illustration composed of overlapping triangles and circles in shades of blue, green, and orange, conceptually representing the resilience of Texas' energy infrastructure in the face of global supply disruptions.Texas' abundant natural gas reserves help shield the state's electricity consumers from global energy supply crises.Houston Today

Despite Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz cutting off roughly 12 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day from global markets, analysts at TexasElectricityRatings.com say customers are unlikely to see crisis-driven rate spikes this summer. America's robust domestic production, with Texas alone supplying roughly a quarter of the national total, effectively insulates consumers from foreign supply shocks.

Why it matters

While global energy conflicts can impact electricity prices, analysts say Texas' abundant natural gas production and growing renewable energy capacity provide a strong buffer against international supply disruptions. However, the real risk to Texas electricity rates remains the state's hot summer weather and increasing cooling demand.

The details

According to the analysts, when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and NATO allies cut off Russian gas imports, European benchmark prices exploded while U.S. natural gas prices barely flinched. This is because America's robust domestic production, with Texas alone supplying roughly a quarter of the national total, effectively insulates consumers from foreign supply shocks. What did shake U.S. prices that year was the brutal winter that drained natural gas storage, followed by a scorching summer that drove record electricity demand for air conditioning.

  • In February 2022, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and NATO's cut-off of Russian gas imports caused European benchmark prices to jump from around $25 per MMBtu to more than $117 per MMBtu within weeks.
  • By June 2022, average 12-month residential electricity rates in Texas had climbed from 15.59 cents per kWh to 20.81 cents per kWh, with Houston electricity companies charging the highest average price per kWh at 25.82 cents.
  • NOAA currently forecasts above-normal temperatures spreading across Texas through June and July 2026.

The players

TexasElectricityRatings.com

A website operated by Electricity Ratings, LLC that provides energy comparison and ratings services to over 80 million customers across 17 states and 56 utilities.

Electricity Ratings, LLC

The company that operates TexasElectricityRatings.com and a network of energy shopping websites, providing consumers with information to find, compare, and buy electricity and energy services from the best providers.

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What they’re saying

“Despite Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz cutting off roughly 12 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day from global markets, analysts at TexasElectricityRatings.com say customers are unlikely to see crisis-driven rate spikes this summer.”

— TexasElectricityRatings.com, Analysts

“America's robust domestic production, with Texas alone supplying roughly a quarter of the national total, effectively insulates consumers from foreign supply shocks.”

— TexasElectricityRatings.com, Analysts

What’s next

NOAA's forecast of above-normal temperatures across Texas through June and July 2026 will be a key factor to monitor, as high cooling demand could still drive up electricity prices despite the insulation from global energy conflicts.

The takeaway

While global energy crises can impact electricity prices, Texas' abundant natural gas production and growing renewable energy capacity provide a strong buffer against international supply disruptions. However, the state's hot summer weather remains the real risk factor for Texas electricity rates, as high cooling demand can still lead to significant price spikes.