Oil Shock Ripples Through Global Economy as Conflict Drags On

Analysts warn the worst effects of the war with Iran may still be ahead, with rising energy prices impacting businesses and consumers worldwide.

Mar. 30, 2026 at 5:22pm

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A geometric abstract illustration composed of overlapping triangles and circles in shades of blue, red, and yellow, conceptually representing the far-reaching economic impacts of the oil shock.The oil crisis sparked by the war with Iran threatens to disrupt the global economy for months to come.Houston Today

Surging oil prices continue to ripple through the global economy due to the ongoing war with Iran, with analysts warning that the worst effects may still be to come. Beyond immediate impacts from rising gasoline prices, the conflict's disruption to oil and natural gas supplies could play out over weeks and months, leaving few parts of the global economy untouched. Experts say the situation has become a 'systemic problem' that could push oil prices as high as $200 per barrel in the short term if Iranian export facilities are damaged.

Why it matters

The oil shock triggered by the war with Iran threatens to slow global economic growth, with higher energy costs impacting businesses, transportation, and consumer spending. Even if the conflict ends soon, the damage to energy infrastructure will take time to repair, and the geopolitical risk of doing business in the Middle East will remain elevated.

The details

The global oil price benchmark, Brent crude, briefly topped $119 per barrel last week, the highest level since the war began, as vessel traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz has dropped from over 100 ships per day to fewer than 5. This has left millions of barrels of oil and other commodities landlocked and unable to reach global markets. Key fossil fuel production facilities, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants, have also been impacted by the conflict. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and these facilities remain offline, the more severe the global energy shortages will be.

  • On March 30, 2026, Brent crude oil prices briefly topped $119 per barrel, the highest level since the war began.
  • As of March 27, 2026, daily vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from over 100 ships per day to fewer than 5.

The players

Samantha Gross

Director of energy security and climate at the Brookings Institute.

Patrick Pouyanné

Chief executive officer of oil giant Total.

Patrick De Haan

Chief analyst at Gas Buddy.

Peter Berezin

Chief global strategist at BCA Research firm.

Andy Lipow

President of Lipow Oil Associates consultancy.

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What they’re saying

“The current macro environment is a toxic brew of many of the same vulnerabilities that haunted the global economy in the lead-up to past recessions.”

— Peter Berezin, Chief global strategist at BCA Research firm

“Even if the conflict ended tomorrow, the supply disruption is going to last for quite some time, given the damage that we've seen to energy infrastructure that needs to be repaired. There will be additional geopolitical risk assessed to doing business in the Middle East, as there's no guarantee that this couldn't happen again.”

— Andy Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates consultancy

What’s next

Analysts are now considering scenarios in which the global price of oil reaches as much as $200 per barrel in the short term if Iranian export facilities are damaged by a U.S. escalation. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and key energy production facilities remain offline, the more severe the global economic impact will be.

The takeaway

The oil shock triggered by the war with Iran poses a serious threat to global economic growth, with higher energy costs impacting businesses, transportation, and consumer spending worldwide. Even if the conflict ends soon, the damage to energy infrastructure will take time to repair, and the geopolitical risk of doing business in the Middle East will remain elevated, potentially leading to a prolonged period of economic uncertainty and instability.