China's Oil Demand May Peak Sooner Than Expected

State-owned energy giant CNOOC predicts China's crude oil demand could crest "almost this year"

Mar. 26, 2026 at 5:46pm

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China, the world's top oil importer, may see its crude oil demand reach a peak much earlier than the widely cited 2030 timeline. Zhen Wang, head of the research institute at state-owned energy company CNOOC, told the CERAWeek conference in Houston that China's oil demand could crest "almost this year", driven by a surge in renewable energy, slower economic growth, and a rapid shift to electric vehicles and natural gas trucks.

Why it matters

China's oil demand has accounted for about 60% of the growth in global oil demand over the past 10 years, so a peak in its consumption would mark a significant milestone in the global energy landscape. This shift could have major implications for oil producers, refiners, and the overall global oil market.

The details

According to Zhen Wang, the head of the research institute at CNOOC, China's crude oil demand could reach its peak "almost this year", much earlier than the widely cited 2030 timeline. This trend is driven by several factors, including a surge in renewable energy sources, which now make up more than half of China's power generation capacity, as well as slower economic growth and a rapid pivot to electric vehicles and natural gas trucks.

  • China's crude oil demand could crest "almost this year", according to CNOOC's research institute head Zhen Wang.

The players

Zhen Wang

Head of the research institute at state-owned energy company CNOOC.

CNOOC

A state-owned energy giant and one of China's largest oil and gas companies.

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What they’re saying

“China's crude demand could crest "almost this year", well ahead of a widely cited 2030 timeline.”

— Zhen Wang, Head of the research institute at CNOOC

The takeaway

The potential peak in China's oil demand much sooner than expected could have significant implications for the global energy market, as China has been the driving force behind the growth in oil demand over the past decade. This shift towards renewable energy and alternative fuels in China could accelerate the global energy transition.