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Perfect March Madness brackets dwindle to hundreds after first round
Astronomical odds prove true as over 99.999% of 26 million-plus brackets entered are already busted
Mar. 21, 2026 at 5:35am
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The number of unblemished entries in ESPN's bracket challenge dropped to just 195 after the completion of the first round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, even with all the high-seeded favorites winning. Over at the NCAA's bracket challenge, only 234 error-free entries remained. In the women's tournament, over 2 million entries had already fallen by the wayside despite the higher seeds prevailing in every contest.
Why it matters
The unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament is a major part of its appeal, with fans and bettors alike seeking to capitalize on potential Cinderella stories and upsets. This year's early results have already dashed the dreams of millions who entered brackets, highlighting just how astronomically difficult it is to predict a perfect 63-game tournament.
The details
ESPN's bracket challenge saw the number of perfect entries drop from over 26 million to just 195 after the first round, while the NCAA's own bracket challenge had only 234 error-free entries remaining. In the women's tournament, over 675,000 perfect brackets were still alive after Friday's games, but that was still a tiny fraction of the over 2 million entries that had already been busted.
- The first round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament was completed on March 21, 2026.
- The women's tournament games were played on March 17-18, 2026.
The players
ESPN
A leading sports media company that operates a popular bracket challenge for the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
NCAA
The National Collegiate Athletic Association, which oversees the men's and women's NCAA Basketball Tournaments.
Kalshi
A prediction market platform that is offering a $1 billion prize for a perfect NCAA Tournament bracket, with a $1 million consolation prize for the top-scoring bracket.
BetMGM
A major sports betting operator that has seen a surge in betting interest for both the men's and women's NCAA Tournaments.
Caitlin Clark
A star player in the women's NCAA Tournament who has helped bring more attention to the sport.
What they’re saying
“In March Madness, underdogs and upsets are such a popular theme and part of our culture that even though favorites have done so well lately, we still see underdogs taking a majority of bets in many games.”
— John Ewing, BetMGM spokesman
“I think people are just realizing it's just as much fun as the men's tournament.”
— John Ewing, BetMGM spokesman
What’s next
Kalshi will award a $1 billion prize to anyone who correctly predicts all 63 games of the NCAA Tournament, with a $1 million consolation prize for the top-scoring bracket.
The takeaway
The early results of the 2026 NCAA Tournaments have once again demonstrated the incredible unpredictability that makes March Madness so captivating for fans and bettors alike. Despite the favorites largely holding serve, the number of perfect brackets has already dwindled to a precious few, highlighting just how astronomically difficult it is to correctly predict the outcome of 63 games.
