ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi Updates 2026 NCAA Tournament Projections

Lunardi releases new top 16 seeds and bubble teams after Big 12 title game

Mar. 15, 2026 at 12:58am

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ESPN's lead college basketball bracketologist Joe Lunardi has updated his 2026 NCAA Tournament projections, including a new top 16 seed list and bubble teams, following the conclusion of the Big 12 Conference championship game.

Why it matters

Lunardi's NCAA Tournament projections are closely watched by fans and teams alike, as they provide an early look at which programs are on track to earn top seeds and which are on the bubble for an at-large bid to the Big Dance.

The details

In his latest update, Lunardi has Arizona as a new No. 1 seed after the Wildcats defeated Houston 79-74 in the Big 12 title game. Lunardi also highlighted several bubble teams that are still fighting for an at-large bid, including Oklahoma State, Rutgers, and NC State.

  • The updated projections were released on March 15, 2026, following the Big 12 championship game.

The players

Joe Lunardi

ESPN's lead college basketball bracketologist who provides regular NCAA Tournament projections and analysis.

Arizona

The Wildcats are a new No. 1 seed in Lunardi's updated 2026 NCAA Tournament projections after winning the Big 12 title game.

Houston

The Cougars lost to Arizona 79-74 in the Big 12 championship game, impacting their NCAA Tournament seeding.

Oklahoma State

The Cowboys are among the bubble teams highlighted by Lunardi in his latest projections.

Rutgers

The Scarlet Knights are also on the bubble according to Lunardi's updated 2026 NCAA Tournament forecast.

NC State

The Wolfpack are another team fighting for an at-large bid in Lunardi's latest bracketology.

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What they’re saying

“Arizona's win over Houston was a big boost to their chances of earning a No. 1 seed. They're now firmly in the mix at the top of the field.”

— Joe Lunardi, ESPN Bracketologist (on3.com)

What’s next

Lunardi will continue to update his NCAA Tournament projections in the coming weeks as more conference tournaments are completed and the field of 68 teams takes shape.

The takeaway

Lunardi's updated bracketology provides an early look at which teams are positioned to earn top seeds and which programs are on the NCAA Tournament bubble, giving fans and teams a sense of the landscape as March Madness approaches.