Brent Oil Prices to Remain High Amid Mideast Conflict, EIA Forecasts

Energy agency expects Brent crude to stay above $95 per barrel for next 2 months due to supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Published on Mar. 10, 2026

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected that Brent oil prices will remain above $95 per barrel over the next two months due to ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The EIA cited the effective closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil flows daily, as a key factor leading to reduced Mideast oil output in the coming weeks. However, the EIA expects these production shut-ins to gradually ease as transit through the strait resumes.

Why it matters

The EIA's forecast of elevated Brent crude prices over the next two months has significant implications for the global economy, as higher energy costs can drive up inflation, impact consumer spending, and disrupt supply chains. The situation in the Middle East remains a major source of uncertainty for energy markets.

The details

According to the EIA's monthly short-term energy outlook report, Brent crude futures will then fall below $80 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, before slipping to around $70 by the end of the year. The agency cited the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which a fifth of global oil flows every day, as a key factor leading to reduced Mideast oil output in the coming weeks.

  • The EIA expects Brent oil prices to remain above $95 per barrel over the next two months.
  • Brent crude futures will then fall below $80 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026.
  • Brent crude prices are expected to slip to around $70 per barrel by the end of 2026.

The players

Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy that collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.

Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial maritime chokepoint located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, through which a significant portion of the world's oil supply passes.

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The takeaway

The EIA's forecast of elevated Brent crude prices over the next two months highlights the ongoing volatility and uncertainty in global energy markets, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. Businesses and consumers will need to closely monitor the situation and prepare for the potential economic impacts of higher energy costs.