NBA Futures Bets to Consider After All-Star Break

Analyzing value plays for MVP, Most Improved Player, and team win totals

Published on Feb. 25, 2026

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The NBA season is past the midway point, and it's time to reevaluate futures bets before the playoffs. The MVP race is tight between Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but Jokic at +300 offers good value if he can stay healthy. For Most Improved Player, Deni Avdija of the Wizards is the pick at -120 as he's made a big leap in scoring and playmaking. On the team side, the Spurs look poised to surpass their 56.5 win total, while the Rockets are unlikely to reach 53 wins despite a soft schedule to end the season.

Why it matters

With the playoffs looming, now is the time for bettors to identify value plays on individual awards and team win totals before the markets tighten up. Identifying potential MVP candidates and breakout players, as well as overperforming and underperforming teams, can lead to profitable futures bets.

The details

In the MVP race, Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets is offering value at +300 despite being the current favorite. He's having a historic statistical season, but the 65-game eligibility rule means he can only miss one more game. Luka Doncic is also in the mix, but both players' ability to stay healthy will be key. For Most Improved Player, Deni Avdija of the Wizards is the pick at -120. He's made a big leap in scoring, rebounding, and playmaking this season, and his team should compete for a Play-In spot. On the team side, the Spurs look poised to surpass their 56.5 win total, needing to win just 19 of their remaining 32 games. Meanwhile, the Rockets are unlikely to reach 53 wins, as they would need to win 20 of their final 29 games after the All-Star break.

  • The NBA season is past the midway point.
  • The All-Star Break has just occurred.

The players

Nikola Jokic

A center for the Denver Nuggets who is having one of the best statistical seasons of his career and is currently +300 to win the MVP award.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

A guard for the Oklahoma City Thunder who is the current favorite to win the MVP award.

Deni Avdija

A forward for the Washington Wizards who is the favorite to win the Most Improved Player award at -120 after significantly increasing his scoring, rebounding, and playmaking this season.

San Antonio Spurs

An NBA team that is currently second in their conference and is expected to surpass their preseason win total of 56.5.

Houston Rockets

An NBA team that is unlikely to reach their preseason win total of 53 despite having a soft schedule to end the season.

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What they’re saying

“Nikola Jokic somehow is having one of his best statistical seasons ever, and he is +300 to win the award. The problem is that he can only miss one more game. If he misses two, he is disqualified for the MVP award due to the 65 games rule the NBA implemented.”

— David Troy, Author (outkick.com)

“Avdija has increased his scoring every season. However, this year, he increased from 16.9 to 25.2 points per game. He still needs to get 19 more games played to qualify as well, and Portland should compete for a Play-In Spot. So, I'm not really worried about a tanking issue or anything.”

— David Troy, Author (outkick.com)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This analysis highlights some intriguing futures bets to consider as the NBA season enters the home stretch, with potential value plays on individual awards and team win totals that could pay off before the playoffs begin.