2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections shake up bubble picture

Bubble teams create headlines across the country as the picture becomes clearer for the 68-team bracket.

Published on Feb. 15, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

A weekend slate filled with swing games for bubble teams, more top-seeded losses, and a large amount of movement across the bracket have set up big changes to bracketology. The NCAA uses the NET Rankings to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March, and bracketology aims to predict how the committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

Why it matters

As the bubble teams create headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. These bracketology projections provide an early look at how the field could shape up, with key matchups and potential seeding implications for top teams.

The details

The projected 1-seeds are Michigan, Duke, Arizona, and Houston. The last four byes go to Santa Clara, Texas A&M, UCLA, and Georgia, while the last four in are SDSU, USC, Ohio State, and UCF. The first four out are New Mexico, Missouri, VCU, and TCU. Notable matchups include Michigan vs. Purdue, Houston vs. Iowa State, and Arizona vs. BYU.

  • The NCAA Tournament bracket will be revealed on Selection Sunday, March 16, 2026.

The players

Michigan

The No. 1 overall seed in the bracketology projections after picking up a blowout win over bubble candidate UCLA.

Purdue

Sitting on the 2-seed line in bracketology following a win over Iowa, with an opportunity to continue their surge against No. 1 overall seed Michigan.

Houston

Finding stability on the 1-seed line as others around them continue to take losses, adding a win over Kansas State to their resume.

Iowa State

Coming off a win against Kansas, which helped them rebound quickly from a loss that knocked them off the 1-seed line in bracketology.

Duke

Moving up in the pecking order on the 1-seed line, picking up a win over Clemson to assert its play atop the ACC.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“As the bubble teams create headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order.”

— James Fletcher III, Author (on3.com)

What’s next

The NCAA Tournament bracket will be revealed on Selection Sunday, March 16, 2026.

The takeaway

These bracketology projections highlight the shifting landscape of the 2026 NCAA Tournament field, with bubble teams making headlines and top seeds jockeying for position. The coming weeks will be crucial as teams look to solidify their tournament resumes and secure favorable seeds in the bracket.