Valentine's Day Weekend Forecast: Storms Possible

Rainy conditions expected on Saturday, but Sunday and Monday look sunny and mild

Published on Feb. 12, 2026

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A cold front is expected to move through the Houston area on Saturday, potentially bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms during the evening hours. While rain totals could reach 0.5 to 1.5 inches, the threat of flooding appears low for now. However, the possibility of severe weather also exists. The weather is expected to improve on Sunday and Monday, with sunny skies, mild temperatures, and lighter winds.

Why it matters

The Valentine's Day weekend forecast is important for residents and businesses in the Houston area, as the weather can impact outdoor plans, travel, and overall enjoyment of the holiday. The potential for severe storms on Saturday evening is also a public safety concern that requires monitoring.

The details

The cold front is expected to approach the Houston region on Saturday, with scattered light showers possible in the morning. A more robust line of showers and thunderstorms is then likely to move through the area between 6 PM and midnight on Saturday. This line of storms could produce 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, though the threat of flooding appears low for now. There is also a 'marginal risk' of severe weather, including the possibility of strong winds and hail.

  • Saturday morning: Scattered light showers expected
  • Saturday afternoon/evening: Line of stronger showers and thunderstorms likely between 6 PM and midnight

The players

NOAA

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the federal agency that provides weather forecasting and monitoring services.

Weather Bell

A private weather forecasting company that provides data and models to the public.

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What’s next

Matt and I will keep a close eye on the forecast and provide updates if the threat of severe weather or flooding increases.

The takeaway

While the Valentine's Day weekend in Houston will start off rainy on Saturday, the weather is expected to improve significantly on Sunday and Monday, providing a nice window for outdoor activities and celebrations.