2 Blue Texas Districts Still Pose a Challenge for Republicans With New Map

Republican efforts to flip Democratic-held congressional seats in South Texas face an uphill battle despite redrawn district lines.

Published on Mar. 2, 2026

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Texas has redrawn its congressional maps, including reliably Democratic districts 28 and 34, in an effort to bolster Republican chances of maintaining control of Congress. However, the redrawn districts still pose a challenge for Republicans, with District 28 leaning blue and District 34 considered a tossup. Democratic incumbents Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez, both considered moderate Democrats, are expected to face tough Republican challengers, but are still favored to win their primaries and general elections.

Why it matters

The battle for these South Texas congressional seats is seen as a key battleground in the broader fight for control of Congress. Republicans have been making inroads with Hispanic voters in the region, but Democrats remain competitive, especially in districts with large Hispanic populations. The outcome of these races could have significant implications for the balance of power in Washington.

The details

Texas's 28th Congressional District, which is almost 90% Hispanic, is now considered leaning blue, despite the redrawn boundaries that would have favored Trump in 2024. Democratic incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar, a moderate who has crossed party lines to vote with Republicans, is expected to have a slight advantage over his Republican challenger. In the 34th District, which is about 74% Hispanic, the race is considered a tossup, with Democratic incumbent Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, also a moderate, facing a crowded Republican field that includes Mayra Flores, who briefly won the seat in a 2022 special election, and former federal prosecutor Eric Flores.

  • Texas primaries are coming to a close on March 3, 2026.
  • Mayra Flores won a special election in District 34 in June 2022.

The players

Henry Cuellar

Democratic incumbent in Texas's 28th Congressional District, considered a moderate Democrat who has crossed party lines to vote with Republicans. He has held the seat for more than 20 years.

Vicente Gonzalez

Democratic incumbent in Texas's 34th Congressional District, also considered a moderate Democrat. He is expected to face a crowded Republican field in the primary.

Mayra Flores

Republican candidate who briefly won the 34th District seat in a 2022 special election.

Eric Flores

Republican candidate in the 34th District race, who has gained the support of former President Trump and other party leaders.

Tano Tijerina

Republican candidate expected to win the primary in the 28th District, which is almost 90% Hispanic.

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What they’re saying

“Both seats are definitely challenging and determinant upon how Hispanic voters turn out.”

— Jeff Burton, Founding partner at Maven Advocacy in Austin and longtime GOP strategist

“Henry is long-tested and well-known, and he's always going to be tough to beat.”

— Jeff Burton, Founding partner at Maven Advocacy in Austin and longtime GOP strategist

“This is a hard question. I think things have kind of died down—the enthusiasm.”

— Felix Cano, Army veteran

“You're talking about the ICE raids and that impacting the way people feel about Republicans, like a negative sentiment.”

— Luis Cabrera, South Texas pastor and Latino Faith Director for Citizens Defending Freedom

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.