Geopolitics Can Disrupt Flights Without Warning

Global conflicts and foreign policy decisions can significantly impact air travel, leading to longer routes, higher costs, and flight disruptions.

Published on Feb. 21, 2026

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Wars, foreign policy, and airspace bans can force airlines to change routes, raise fares, and disrupt travel far from conflict zones. Travelers in the U.S. have seen airports closed, flights rerouted, and travel demand decline due to geopolitical tensions, even when not visiting the affected regions directly.

Why it matters

Global events can significantly impact air travel, even for passengers not visiting the affected areas. Rerouting flights, closing airspace, and other geopolitical factors can lead to higher ticket prices, less convenient itineraries, and travel disruptions for passengers.

The details

Airlines are constantly analyzing the global threat landscape to ensure flights can operate safely. When conflicts erupt, many flights wind up being diverted to avoid danger on the ground. While the Ukraine-Russia conflict continues, U.S. airlines likely won't be able to overfly Russian airspace, leading to longer routes and higher costs. Similarly, U.S. airlines are prohibited from overflying certain parts of the Middle East, which could change if the situation on the ground changes.

  • On February 11, the airport in El Paso, Texas was closed for 10 days, only to have the order lifted hours later.
  • A few weeks prior, U.S. flights in the Caribbean were disrupted as the Trump administration prepared and executed its capture of Venezuela's then-leader Nicolás Maduro.
  • U.S. arrivals to Iceland plunged 27% year over year in January 2026, which travel companies say aligns with rising geopolitical tensions around Greenland.

The players

Bijan Vasigh

Professor of air transportation at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.

Mark Dombroff

Co-chair of the aviation practice at law firm Fox Rothschild.

Chrissy Valdez

Senior director of operations at travel insurance company Squaremouth.

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What they’re saying

“That element has a significant financial cost for the airline and a significant burden on the passengers as well, but everything is for the safety of the passengers.”

— Bijan Vasigh, Professor of air transportation at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (USA TODAY)

“You could say the expeditious movement of air traffic is the lowest of the three priorities, but you want to have it safe and orderly to have it expeditious.”

— Mark Dombroff, Co-chair of the aviation practice at law firm Fox Rothschild (USA TODAY)

“Travelers whose flights are significantly delayed or cancelled by geopolitical events are entitled to an automatic refund from their airline, according to rules passed by the Department of Transportation in October 2024.”

— Chrissy Valdez, Senior director of operations at travel insurance company Squaremouth (USA TODAY)

What’s next

The situation with Russian airspace closures and the Ukraine-Russia conflict is likely to continue evolving, with the potential for airspace to reopen once a resolution is reached.

The takeaway

Geopolitical events can have far-reaching impacts on air travel, leading to flight disruptions, higher costs, and less convenient itineraries for passengers, even if they are not traveling to the affected regions directly. Travelers should stay informed about global conflicts and be prepared for potential flight changes or cancellations.