Texas to Add Over 278,000 Jobs in 2026, Dallas Fed Forecasts

The report predicts 1.9% employment growth in the state this year, with a range of 1.1-2.7%.

Apr. 6, 2026 at 3:54pm

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A vibrant abstract illustration composed of intersecting triangles and rectangles in shades of blue, orange, and green, conceptually representing the economic growth and employment trends in Texas.The Dallas Federal Reserve's optimistic forecast for Texas job growth in 2026 signals the state's continued economic vitality.Dallas Today

According to a new report from the Dallas Federal Reserve, Texas is expected to add more than 278,000 jobs in 2026, with employment growth projected to reach 1.9% this year. The forecast is based on an average of four models that take into account national GDP, oil futures prices, and leading economic indexes for both Texas and the U.S.

Why it matters

The Texas employment forecast provides valuable insights into the state's economic trajectory and labor market trends. As one of the fastest-growing states in the country, Texas' job creation and economic performance have significant implications for the broader U.S. economy.

The details

The Dallas Fed report cites several factors contributing to the employment growth forecast, including strengthening job gains in December and January, as well as the state's robust business activity. However, the report also notes potential headwinds, such as declining immigration constraining labor supply, higher productivity suppressing labor demand, and geopolitical uncertainty.

  • The Texas Employment Forecast was released on April 3, 2026.
  • The report indicates that Texas employment grew at an annualized rate of 2.3% in January 2026, while December 2025 job growth was 2.2%.

The players

Dallas Federal Reserve

The regional Federal Reserve bank that covers the state of Texas and surrounding areas, responsible for conducting economic research and analysis.

Luis Torres

A senior business economist at the Dallas Federal Reserve who provided commentary on the Texas employment forecast.

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What they’re saying

“Texas employment growth strengthened notably in December and January, contributing to an increase in the employment forecast for 2026. However, our expectations are for Texas employment growth in 2026 to be more in line with the lower end of the confidence band at 1.1% given several headwinds.”

— Luis Torres, Senior Business Economist, Dallas Federal Reserve

What’s next

The Dallas Federal Reserve will continue to monitor economic conditions in Texas and update its employment forecast as new data becomes available.

The takeaway

The Dallas Federal Reserve's positive outlook on Texas job growth in 2026 reflects the state's robust economic performance and resilience, even in the face of potential headwinds. This forecast underscores Texas' continued importance as a key driver of the broader U.S. economy.