Dallas Fed Forecasts 278,000 New Texas Jobs in 2026

Projected 1.9% employment gain would lift state's total to 14.6 million, but headwinds loom

Apr. 6, 2026 at 7:26pm

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

A minimalist composition of overlapping triangles and rectangles in shades of blue, orange, and gray, conceptually representing the economic data and trends discussed in the story.Geometric visualization of Texas' projected job growth and economic outlook for 2026.Dallas Today

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is projecting the state of Texas will add 278,400 jobs in 2026, a 1.9% gain that would lift total employment to 14.6 million by December. However, the forecast carries an 80% confidence band of 1.1% to 2.7%, with several economic headwinds expected to constrain growth at the lower end of that range.

Why it matters

The Dallas Fed's employment forecast provides valuable insight into the state's economic trajectory and the factors shaping labor market trends. This data is closely watched by policymakers, businesses, and workers as they make decisions about investment, hiring, and career planning.

The details

The Texas Employment Forecast is based on an average of four models that factor in projected U.S. gross domestic product, oil futures prices, and leading economic indexes for Texas and the nation. Dallas Fed senior business economist Luis Torres cited several headwinds that could limit job growth, including declining immigration constraining labor supply, higher productivity suppressing labor demand, moderation in business activity, and geopolitical uncertainty. However, high oil prices are expected to boost state economic activity if sustained.

  • The forecast is for employment growth in 2026.
  • In January 2026, Texas employment grew at a 2.3% annualized pace, adding 27,000 jobs.

The players

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

The regional Federal Reserve bank that covers the state of Texas and is responsible for monitoring economic conditions and issuing forecasts for the state.

Luis Torres

A senior business economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas who authored the employment forecast for Texas.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“Texas employment growth strengthened notably in December and January, contributing to an increase in the employment forecast for 2026. However, our expectations are for Texas employment growth in 2026 to be more in line with the lower end of the confidence band at 1.1%, given several headwinds.”

— Luis Torres, Senior Business Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

What’s next

The Dallas Fed will continue to monitor economic conditions in Texas and update its employment forecast as new data becomes available. Policymakers and businesses will closely watch these projections to inform their decision-making.

The takeaway

The Dallas Fed's employment forecast for Texas highlights the state's economic resilience, with projected job gains of nearly 280,000 in 2026. However, the forecast also underscores the economic headwinds the state faces, including labor supply constraints and geopolitical uncertainty, which could limit growth at the lower end of the projected range.