Texas Smokehouses Struggle as Beef Supply Tightens Nationwide

Droughts, thinning herds, and supply delays drive up brisket prices, putting pressure on the state's barbecue industry.

Published on Feb. 18, 2026

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Texas pitmasters warn the state's barbecue industry is under growing pressure as droughts, thinning herds, and supply delays drive up beef prices and force some smokehouses out of business. Rising costs that ranchers have faced for years are now making their way onto restaurant menus, increasing prices for brisket, burgers, and other beef staples. At the heart of the issue is a dwindling cattle supply, with the U.S. cattle inventory reaching its lowest level since 1951.

Why it matters

Texas barbecue is a cultural institution, and the tightening beef supply threatens to disrupt long-standing traditions. Small, family-owned ranchers are being hit the hardest, with many worried they won't survive the next few years as they lack the scale and pricing power of large corporate operations to absorb rising costs.

The details

Over the past six to nine months, pitmasters say brisket prices have surged dramatically, signaling more sticker shock ahead for customers. A recent U.S. Department of Agriculture report revealed the smallest U.S. cattle inventory in 75 years, with only 86.2 million head of cattle and calves on U.S. farms as of Jan. 1, 2026, the lowest number since 1951. Herds have been shrinking for several years, made worse by drought and disease. As supply tightens, restaurant owners and beef producers say it's becoming increasingly difficult to maintain profit margins.

  • The U.S. cattle inventory reached its lowest level since 1951 as of January 1, 2026.
  • Over the past six to nine months, brisket prices have surged dramatically.

The players

Garth Ruff

A beef cattle field specialist at Ohio State University.

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What they’re saying

“That's the lowest number of beef cows we've had in the U.S. since going back in the early 1950s. You're looking at 27 to 30 months before I see a product on the shelf. We just can't speed up the biology of these animals.”

— Garth Ruff, Beef Cattle Field Specialist

The takeaway

The tightening beef supply in the U.S. is putting significant pressure on Texas's iconic barbecue industry, with small, family-owned ranchers being hit the hardest. This threatens to disrupt long-standing cultural traditions and could lead to higher prices and even the closure of some beloved smokehouses if the situation does not improve.