Perspectives on 'Peak Population'

What revised global population projections mean for the future of energy consumption

Published on Feb. 12, 2026

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A message from The Dispatch discusses how emerging views on global population decline may impact energy supply and demand. The article explores three perspectives: 1) A smaller population does not necessarily mean less energy consumption, as developing countries like India will continue seeking economic growth and increased energy use. 2) Even with a declining global population, the number of wealthy people is likely to continue increasing, driving greater demand for energy-intensive services like air conditioning and air travel. 3) Fewer people and lower economic growth could moderate projections of future climate change by reducing carbon emissions.

Why it matters

The article highlights a major shift in expert projections around global population growth, moving away from concerns about overpopulation towards the possibility of population decline. These changing demographic trends have significant implications for energy policy, economic growth, and climate change that policymakers and the public will need to grapple with.

The details

The article cites examples of countries like Japan, Russia, and Poland that have experienced population declines without corresponding drops in per capita energy consumption. It suggests that even as overall global population peaks and declines, the number of wealthy individuals is likely to continue increasing, driving greater demand for energy-intensive services. The article also argues that lower population and economic growth projections could moderate climate change concerns by reducing carbon emissions, though challenges would remain.

  • The United Nations currently projects India will see peak population in the early 2060s.
  • Japan has experienced a gradual population decline since 2010.

The players

Roger Pielke Jr.

The author of the article and an expert on energy and climate policy.

Charles I. Jones

A Stanford University economist who has suggested the 21st century could see slower economic growth than the past.

Matthew G. Burgess

A researcher who has predicted increasing overall global wealth despite potential challenges to future economic growth.

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What they’re saying

“Despite these potential challenges, we note that the world envisioned ... is nonetheless substantially richer than the world today—with many regions reaching affluence greater than today's affluence in high-income regions, and with lower-income regions having the most rapid increases in affluence.”

— Matthew G. Burgess (Nature Communications Earth & Environment)

“Fertility is low or falling across the world: among high-, middle-, and low-income countries; among secular and religious populations; and in economies where the state is large and where it is small. Birth rates have been falling not only for decades, but for centuries.”

— Michael Geruso and Dean Spears, Researchers, University of Texas at Austin (Journal of Economic Perspectives)

What’s next

The article does not mention any specific next steps, as it is focused on analyzing the potential implications of changing global population projections.

The takeaway

The article highlights how evolving perspectives on global population trends, including the possibility of peak population and population decline, could have significant impacts on energy consumption, economic growth, and climate change projections. Policymakers and the public will need to grapple with these demographic shifts and their wide-ranging consequences.