Texas GOP Faces Warning After Democrat Wins Long-Held Republican Seat

Data analysis shows independents and some Republicans backed the Democratic candidate in a surprising state Senate race upset.

Published on Feb. 6, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

In a shocking result, Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss in the race for Texas state Senate District 9, a district that former President Trump won by 17 points in 2024. According to data analyst Ross Hunt, the key factor was that nearly all independent voters and even a quarter of Republican voters in the district backed the Democratic candidate, defying the district's strong Republican lean. Hunt warns this result should serve as a wakeup call for the GOP, as it shows that some traditionally safe Republican seats could now be in play, especially in low-turnout elections.

Why it matters

The upset victory in this deep-red district highlights the potential vulnerability of the Republican Party in Texas, a state that has long been a GOP stronghold. It suggests that independent and some Republican voters may be willing to cross party lines, posing a threat to the GOP's dominance. This could have significant implications for future elections in Texas and nationwide.

The details

The race saw Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeat Republican Leigh Wambsganss by a comfortable margin, despite the district's strong Republican lean. Data analyst Ross Hunt found that while Republican turnout was around 51% and Democratic turnout was 35%, Rehmet won 57% of the vote. Hunt attributes this to the fact that nearly all independent voters and around a quarter of Republican voters in the district backed the Democratic candidate, defying the district's traditional Republican leanings.

  • The special election for Texas state Senate District 9 took place in February 2026.
  • Former President Trump won the district by 17 points in the 2024 election.

The players

Taylor Rehmet

The Democratic candidate who won the state Senate District 9 race.

Leigh Wambsganss

The Republican candidate who lost the state Senate District 9 race.

Ross Hunt

A leading GOP data analyst and pollster, and the founder of Hunt Research, one of the largest political consulting firms in Texas.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“We're in an environment, if you drill down into the precinct level voting results here, where you have some areas where pretty much every independent and maybe as many, in some place, a quarter of the Republicans were voting for Democrats. That is the way Democrats can win against Republicans in the state is by just achieving that kind of massive win among the independent voters and peeling off some Republicans.”

— Ross Hunt, Founder, Hunt Research (wfaa.com)

“I know that everyone around the state right now is recalculating all their numbers and trying to figure out, okay, where is the front line.”

— Ross Hunt, Founder, Hunt Research (wfaa.com)

What’s next

Hunt cautions that this result should not be interpreted as a broader rejection of the GOP or President Trump, as there are specific factors at play in this district. However, he warns that Republicans will need to carefully consider their candidate selection and messaging to appeal to independent and working-class voters in order to avoid similar upsets in the future.

The takeaway

The surprising victory of a Democrat in this deep-red Texas district serves as a wake-up call for the Republican Party, highlighting the potential vulnerability of traditionally safe GOP seats, especially among independent and some Republican voters. This result underscores the need for the GOP to closely match their candidates and messaging to the specific needs and demographics of each district in order to maintain their dominance in Texas and across the country.