Black Voters No Longer a Safe Bet for Democrats

Recent primary results in Texas and Illinois expose divisions and disaffection among Black voters

Mar. 31, 2026 at 10:05am

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A cinematic painting of a solitary Black person standing on a dimly lit urban street corner, the scene bathed in warm, diagonal sunlight and deep shadows, conveying a sense of isolation and disillusionment.The growing disaffection among Black voters, once a reliable Democratic constituency, could have major implications for the party's electoral fortunes.Crockett Today

Two recent Democratic primary elections in Texas and Illinois have exposed growing divisions and disaffection among Black voters, who are no longer seen as a reliable voting bloc for the Democratic Party. The losses of Black candidates like Rep. Jasmine Crockett in Texas and the victory of a more centrist white candidate, James Talarico, have left many Black voters feeling abandoned by the party. Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's win in Illinois, while historic, has also raised questions about the party's commitment to elevating Black leaders. Activists and strategists warn that Democrats can no longer take the Black vote for granted and must make real investments to engage this crucial constituency.

Why it matters

Black voters have long been a reliable voting bloc for the Democratic Party, but recent election results suggest that dynamic may be shifting. The losses of Black candidates in key primaries, along with growing disaffection among Black voters, could have major implications for Democrats' chances of retaking the Senate and White House. The party will need to work harder to energize and mobilize Black voters, who are increasingly viewing both parties as failing to address their concerns.

The details

In the Texas Senate Democratic primary, Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a Black candidate, lost handily to James Talarico, a white centrist candidate. In Illinois, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, a Black woman, won the Democratic Senate primary, but some feel she didn't get enough credit for her own victory, with the focus instead on the backing of Gov. JB Pritzker. These results have left many Black voters and activists feeling abandoned by the Democratic Party, which they say has taken their support for granted and failed to adequately address their concerns, particularly around the economy, healthcare, and education. Strategists warn that Black voters are increasingly viewing both parties as indifferent to their needs and are becoming more willing to swing their support, as evidenced by a slight rightward shift among Black voters in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia that helped propel former President Trump to a second term.

  • The Texas Senate Democratic primary took place in early 2026.
  • The Illinois Senate Democratic primary took place in early 2026.

The players

Rep. Jasmine Crockett

A Black candidate who lost the Texas Senate Democratic primary.

James Talarico

A white centrist candidate who won the Texas Senate Democratic primary.

Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton

A Black woman who won the Illinois Senate Democratic primary.

Gov. JB Pritzker

The governor of Illinois who provided backing and funding to Lt. Gov. Stratton's campaign.

Helen Butler

The executive director of the Georgia Coalition for the People's Agenda.

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What they’re saying

“They really think that (politicians) are not listening to them, that they're not really doing things for them. They're not responding to their needs. That one side takes them for granted, one side just doesn't care.”

— Helen Butler, Executive Director, Georgia Coalition for the People's Agenda

“While Black people are expressing the highest concern around economics (and) attacks on democracy, they are the most likely to avoid this political environment, so we wanted to understand that avoidance.”

— Terrance Woodbury, President & Founding Partner, HIT Strategies

What’s next

Organizers and activists are working to better understand the growing disaffection among Black voters and develop strategies to re-engage this crucial constituency ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Democrats will need to make significant investments in outreach and mobilization efforts to win back the trust of Black voters.

The takeaway

The losses of Black candidates in key Democratic primaries, coupled with growing disillusionment among Black voters, suggest the party can no longer take this voting bloc for granted. Democrats must work harder to address the concerns of Black voters, particularly around the economy, healthcare, and education, and demonstrate a genuine commitment to elevating Black leaders and empowering Black communities.