Texas Democrats Seek to End Decades-Long Statewide Losing Streak

Competing theories on how to win in the Lone Star State as Democrats aim to flip a Senate seat

Published on Mar. 4, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

Texas Democrats have not won a statewide election since 1994, but they see signs of hope in 2026 with an unpopular Republican president, well-funded candidates, and anecdotal evidence of disaffected GOP and independent voters. However, the path to victory remains elusive, with two leading Democratic Senate candidates - Representative Jasmine Crockett and State Representative James Talarico - offering different strategies to win over voters.

Why it matters

Texas is a crucial battleground state, and a Democratic victory there could reshape the national political landscape. The state's size and diversity make it a challenging environment for Democrats, who have struggled to win statewide races for decades despite the state's changing demographics.

The details

The last time a Democrat won a statewide race in Texas was in 1994, when Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock and a handful of down-ballot incumbents won re-election. Since then, the only close statewide race was in 2018, when Beto O'Rourke came within three points of defeating Senator Ted Cruz. This year, the Democratic primary for Senate has come down to two competing theories - Representative Jasmine Crockett's focus on increasing turnout among Democrats angry at Trump, especially Black voters, and State Representative James Talarico's push for a larger coalition that includes independent and some Republican voters.

  • The last time a Democrat won a statewide race in Texas was in 1994.
  • The closest statewide race in Texas this century was in 2018, when Beto O'Rourke came within three points of defeating Senator Ted Cruz.

The players

Jasmine Crockett

A U.S. Representative running in the Democratic primary for Senate in Texas. She is arguing that increasing turnout among Democrats angry at Trump, especially Black voters, is the path to victory.

James Talarico

A State Representative running in the Democratic primary for Senate in Texas. He is arguing for a larger coalition with inroads among independent and some Republican voters.

Beto O'Rourke

A former U.S. Representative who came within three points of defeating Senator Ted Cruz in the 2018 Senate race in Texas.

Ken Paxton

The Republican Attorney General of Texas and the front-runner in the GOP Senate primary.

John Cornyn

The incumbent Republican U.S. Senator from Texas.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“I am confident. I can feel it in my bones that we are going to win this election. We are going to take back our state and we are going to take back our country.”

— James Talarico, State Representative (Instagram)

“You don't win a state like Texas overnight — it takes years and many elections and many campaigns to get there. We have been building toward something that will be realized at some point, and I think that point will be Nov. 3, 2026.”

— Beto O'Rourke (New York Times)

What’s next

The results of the Democratic primary for Senate in Texas will be closely watched to see which strategy - Crockett's focus on increasing Democratic turnout or Talarico's push for a broader coalition - proves more successful.

The takeaway

Texas remains a challenging environment for Democrats, who have struggled to win statewide races for decades despite the state's changing demographics. The 2026 Senate race will test whether the party's long-term efforts to flip the state can finally pay off, or if the Republican grip on power in the Lone Star State remains unbreakable.