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Texas Senate Primary Races Tight Heading Into Tuesday
Talarico and Paxton hold slim leads in Democratic and Republican primaries, respectively
Published on Mar. 2, 2026
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A new poll from Emerson College shows that Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) and state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) have single-digit leads in their respective Texas Senate primary races. The survey found that 52% of likely Democratic primary voters backed Talarico, while 47% backed Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D). On the Republican side, Paxton received support from 40% of likely GOP primary voters, with Sen. John Cornyn garnering 36% and Rep. Wesley Hunt at 17%. Both results are within the margin of error.
Why it matters
The Texas Senate race is in the national spotlight, with Cornyn seeking a fifth term and facing a formidable challenge from Paxton, a firebrand attorney general who was impeached by the Texas House in 2023. On the Democratic side, the 36-year-old Talarico has risen in stature against Crockett, who is attempting to rise to the Senate after taking office in the lower chamber just over three years ago. The outcome of these primaries could have significant implications for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.
The details
The Emerson College poll found that 58% of early voters backed Talarico, while 41% backed Crockett. However, among likely election day voters, Crockett leads Talarico 50% to 39%. On the Republican side, Cornyn leads Paxton among early voters, 38% to 34%, but Paxton leads Cornyn 44% to 32% among likely election day voters. The presence of Rep. Wesley Hunt in the race is likely to hold both Paxton and Cornyn under the 50% threshold needed to avoid a May 26 runoff.
- Early voting in the primaries began on Feb. 17.
- The Texas primary election is scheduled for Tuesday, March 5, 2026.
The players
James Talarico
Texas state Representative and Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate.
Jasmine Crockett
U.S. Representative and Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate.
Ken Paxton
Texas Attorney General and Republican candidate for U.S. Senate.
John Cornyn
U.S. Senator and Republican candidate for re-election.
Wesley Hunt
U.S. Representative and Republican candidate for U.S. Senate.
What they’re saying
“Cornyn and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) have warned that either Talarico or Crockett could defeat Paxton if the Texas attorney general beats Cornyn.”
— John Cornyn, U.S. Senator (thehill.com)
What’s next
The Texas primary election is scheduled for Tuesday, March 5, 2026. If no candidate reaches 50% of the vote, a runoff election will be held on May 26, 2026.
The takeaway
The tight races in both the Democratic and Republican Texas Senate primaries highlight the competitive nature of the contest and the potential for significant shifts in the balance of power in the U.S. Senate depending on the outcomes.
