Razor-thin polls tighten Texas Senate primary between Paxton and Cornyn, Talarico and Crockett

The big prize in the Texas primary on Tuesday night is for the Senate seat race coming in November.

Published on Mar. 2, 2026

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The Republican primary for the Texas Senate seat is a tight race between Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, while the Democratic primary is close between State Rep. James Talarico and Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. Paxton believes he has a shot at avoiding a runoff, but most analysts expect him to face Cornyn in a runoff. Cornyn has warned about the risks of Paxton as the nominee, while Rep. Wesley Hunt says he jumped in the race because Trump has not endorsed anyone. Talarico is trying to attract disaffected Republicans and Independents, while Crockett is campaigning as a proven fighter against Trump and the GOP.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate race is a key battleground in the 2026 midterm elections, with the potential to shift the balance of power in the Senate. The tight primary races on both sides reflect the deep divisions within the state's political landscape and the high stakes involved.

The details

In the Republican primary, the Real Clear Politics average of polls from February 13-27 shows Attorney General Ken Paxton leading incumbent Sen. John Cornyn 40% to 33%, with Rep. Wesley Hunt trailing in third. On the Democratic side, State Rep. James Talarico is slightly ahead of Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, 49.3% to 47.7%. Paxton believes he has a shot at avoiding a runoff, but most analysts expect him to face Cornyn in a runoff on May 26. Cornyn has warned about the risks of Paxton as the nominee, while Hunt says he jumped in the race because Trump has not endorsed anyone. Talarico is trying to attract disaffected Republicans and Independents, while Crockett is campaigning as a proven fighter against Trump and the GOP.

  • The Texas primary election is on Tuesday, March 5, 2026.
  • If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the primary, a runoff election will be held on May 26, 2026.

The players

Ken Paxton

The current Attorney General of Texas who is running for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate.

John Cornyn

The incumbent four-term Republican U.S. Senator from Texas who is running for re-election.

James Talarico

A Democratic State Representative in Texas who is running for the U.S. Senate.

Jasmine Crockett

A Democratic Congresswoman in Texas who is running for the U.S. Senate.

Wesley Hunt

A Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in Texas.

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What they’re saying

“I just looked at some of the early voting totals. We do analytics on who's voted. They make their best guesses about that. It just looks really good. Obviously, it's a challenge with seven people, eight people in the race, but we've got a shot.”

— Ken Paxton, Attorney General (CBS News)

“I think I can still be effective for the people I've represented for a long time now. And secondly, I don't want to see the Republican party destroyed. We haven't elected a statewide Democrat since 1994 in Texas. If the Attorney General is the nominee, that's all at risk, and that would be a crack in the red wall.”

— John Cornyn, U.S. Senator (CBS News)

“John Cornyn is one of two Republican incumbents the president has not endorsed. I can tell you that had the president endorsed anybody when I waited eight months to get into this race, I wouldn't be here right now ... I gave deference to John Cornyn. I gave deference to the White House. If he was unable to earn his support, well, then, that's when I got into this race.”

— Wesley Hunt, Republican Candidate (CBS News)

“We can't help anybody unless we win political power. The only way to do that is to bring working people together across all these divisions, partisan divisions, racial divisions, cultural and religious divisions. We have to bring all these working people together if we hope to win this seat and take back power for those working people.”

— James Talarico, Democratic Candidate (CBS News)

“Right now, in this moment, people know they need a fighter in D.C. The reason people are so upset with so many Democrats is because they don't feel like they've been fighting. They don't have to wonder. They don't have to question. They know who I am on the federal level when it comes down to fighting for what matters most to Texans.”

— Jasmine Crockett, Democratic Candidate (CBS News)

What’s next

If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the primary, a runoff election will be held on May 26, 2026 between the top two finishers.

The takeaway

The tight Texas Senate primary races on both sides reflect the deep political divisions in the state and the high stakes involved in the 2026 midterm elections. The outcome could have significant implications for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.