Texas Early Voting Sees 'Unusual' Shift Ahead of Primary

More Democrats than Republicans are participating in early voting for the March 3 primary election, a shift not seen in 24 years.

Feb. 26, 2026 at 9:49am

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More than a million Texans have already cast ballots during the first week of early voting for the March 3 primary election, with Democrats seizing a lead in turnout in what has been described as an "unusual" shift. This is the first time this has happened in 24 years, according to CNN's chief data analyst.

Why it matters

The primaries take place before the fast-approaching midterm elections, which could change the balance of power in Congress. Republicans have slim majorities in both chambers, and losing just a few seats to Democrats could hamper the GOP's agenda. While Republicans have dominated statewide races in Texas for decades, the high Democratic turnout may be concerning for the party.

The details

Early voting for the Senate primary election began on February 17 and runs through February 27. Secretary of State Jane Nelson said in the first week, more than a million Texans had cast ballots. CNN's Harry Enten said Democrats had seized a lead in turnout, which he called "unusual" - the last time this happened was in 2002. Prediction markets suggest Democrats have a 60% chance of higher primary turnout.

  • Early voting for the Senate primary election began on February 17 and runs through February 27.
  • In the first week of early voting, more than a million Texans had cast ballots.

The players

Jane Nelson

Texas Secretary of State.

Harry Enten

CNN's chief data analyst.

James Talarico

A Presbyterian pastor battling for the Democratic nomination in the midterms.

Jasmine Crockett

A Texas Democratic Representative.

Ken Paxton

Texas Attorney General, facing off against Senator John Cornyn and Representative Wesley Hunt in the Republican primary.

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What they’re saying

“We are living in unprecedented times, and so I think an unprecedented candidate is exactly what it's going to take to actually be able to flip this seat.”

— Jasmine Crockett, Texas Democratic Representative

“Let me be very clear: I am the strongest general election candidate in this race. From either party. Period. The dirty little secret the Cornyn protection racket won't tell you? I beat every Democrat on the ballot. By MORE. Every. Single. Time. I outperform Cornyn. I outperform Paxton. That's why they're scared. That's why the swamp is nervous. That's why they're attacking. Because I'm the Democrats' worst nightmare. If I'm the nominee, this seat stays RED. If I'm the nominee, Texas wins.”

— Wesley Hunt, Texas Republican Representative

“Texans are already making their voices heard in this year's primary election. Whether you have already voted or plan to vote on March 3, reviewing official election information before voting helps you be prepared and have a smooth voting experience.”

— Jane Nelson, Texas Secretary of State

What’s next

The Democratic and Republican primaries in Texas are scheduled for March 3, with runoff elections set for May 26, if no candidate secures a majority. The midterm elections in Texas and other states will take place in November 2026.

The takeaway

This unusual shift in early voting turnout in Texas could signal a potential change in the political landscape, with Democrats making inroads in a traditionally Republican stronghold. The primaries and midterm elections will be closely watched as they could impact the balance of power in Congress.