Texas Republican Warns Democrats Could Crack 'Red Wall'

Senator John Cornyn says Democratic candidates have a chance of winning his seat, especially if Ken Paxton is the GOP nominee.

Feb. 25, 2026 at 11:51am

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

Republican Senator John Cornyn has warned that a Democratic winning his Texas seat would mark the 'first crack in the red wall.' Cornyn said that either Democratic candidate, state Representative James Talarico or U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, 'absolutely' has a chance of winning the seat, especially if Texas Attorney Ken Paxton is the Republican nominee.

Why it matters

A Democrat has not won a statewide race in Texas in more than 30 years, but Democrats are seeing increasing opportunity ahead of November's midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. Republicans are enjoying a narrower lead over their Democratic rivals in the Texas Senate race, and millions of donations are pouring into the Democratic campaigns.

The details

Cornyn, a four-term incumbent, is being challenged by Paxton and Representative Wesley Hunt in the Texas Republican primary in March that is expected to proceed to a May runoff if no candidate secures a majority. Cornyn said he expects to face Paxton in a runoff, and that Paxton's 'baggage' will jeopardize Republican chances of keeping the seat if he is the GOP nominee. Paxton successfully defended himself against impeachment on fraud charges in 2023, and is shadowed by claims of marital infidelity made by his wife, state Senator Angela Paxton.

  • The primary elections will be held on March 3, with a runoff election held on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority in their respective elections.
  • Early voting is currently underway.

The players

John Cornyn

A four-term Republican Senator from Texas.

Ken Paxton

The Republican Attorney General of Texas who has faced impeachment charges and claims of marital infidelity.

James Talarico

A Democratic state Representative running for Cornyn's Senate seat.

Jasmine Crockett

A Democratic U.S. Representative running for Cornyn's Senate seat.

Wesley Hunt

A Republican U.S. Representative challenging Cornyn in the primary.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“We haven't elected a Democrat since 1994. But this would be the first crack in the red wall, and unfortunately, that's what is being put at risk as a result of the baggage that Ken Paxton brings to this race.”

— John Cornyn, U.S. Senator

“As far as my race, it's going really well. We're a week from being over, and I can tell you right now that we're going to win this race. John Cornyn has not delivered for the people of Texas for the last three decades, and it's about time we had someone that would do it, and I'm here to do that job.”

— Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General

“The reason the Trump administration and their billionaire friends are trying to silence me and this movement is because they're worried that we are going to flip Texas in November.”

— James Talarico, Texas State Representative

“We are living in unprecedented times, and so I think an unprecedented candidate is exactly what it's going to take to actually be able to flip this seat.”

— Jasmine Crockett, U.S. Representative

What’s next

The primary elections will be held on March 3, with a runoff election held on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority in their respective elections.

The takeaway

This race highlights the potential for Democrats to make inroads in traditionally Republican strongholds like Texas, as the party seeks to capitalize on shifting political dynamics and energize its base ahead of the crucial midterm elections.