Texas Primaries Test Parties' Fault Lines as US Midterms Loom

Republican and Democratic Senate candidates face off in high-profile Texas primaries that could shape November's midterm elections.

Published on Feb. 23, 2026

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Texas voters are choosing their US Senate nominees in primaries that have become a test of how both parties navigate Donald Trump's second presidency. The Republican Senate race pits four-term incumbent John Cornyn, a fixture of the party establishment, against state attorney general Ken Paxton, a hardline Trump ally. For Democrats, the contest has become a choice between two high-profile messengers with competing theories of how to break a three-decade statewide losing streak.

Why it matters

The Texas primaries are a key test of the Republican and Democratic parties' fault lines in the Trump era, as they try to navigate the balance between party discipline and base-energizing insurgency. The results could shape the dynamics of the November midterm elections nationwide.

The details

The Republican Senate race is a referendum on the post-Trump identity of the GOP, with establishment figure Cornyn facing off against hardline Trump ally Paxton. On the Democratic side, the contest is a strategic debate between combative anti-Trump fighter Jasmine Crockett and more measured populist James Talarico, who argues for broadening the party's appeal. With single-digit margins, neither race appears close to producing a majority winner, raising the prospect of May runoffs.

  • Early voting is already underway across Texas.
  • The primaries will be held on March 3, 2026.

The players

John Cornyn

A four-term incumbent Republican senator and fixture of the party establishment.

Ken Paxton

The Republican state attorney general and a hardline Trump ally who casts himself as a tribune of grassroots anger at Washington.

Jasmine Crockett

A Democratic congresswoman and combative national figure in the party's anti-Trump resistance.

James Talarico

A Democratic state representative who argues the party must broaden its appeal with a more measured populist message.

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What they’re saying

“I support all three.”

— Donald Trump (Breitbart)

What’s next

The March 3 primaries could lead to May runoffs if no candidate secures a majority. The results will shape the dynamics of the November midterm elections nationwide.

The takeaway

The Texas primaries are a high-profile test of how the Republican and Democratic parties navigate the Trump era, with the GOP grappling with the balance between establishment and insurgency, and Democrats debating the value of viral energy versus broader appeal. The outcomes could have significant implications for the November midterms.