Texas Senate Race: Crockett Could Beat Paxton in New Poll

U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett leads Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in hypothetical general election matchup

Feb. 22, 2026 at 2:33am

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

A new poll from Hart Research shows U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a Dallas Democrat, beating Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a hypothetical general election matchup for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Sen. John Cornyn. Crockett is currently locked in a tight primary battle with Texas state Rep. James Talarico, an Austin Democrat.

Why it matters

The poll results suggest a shift in the dynamics of the Texas Senate race, with Crockett emerging as a potential threat to the Republican candidate despite a competitive Democratic primary. This could have significant implications for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.

The details

The poll found that Crockett is leading with Latino voters and young people, and has the support of independents and working-class voters. The poll also showed that negative ads against Crockett did not sway voters. On the Republican side, Paxton is seeking to use an endorsement from Turning Point Action, the PAC for Turning Point USA, to bolster his lead on Cornyn.

  • The poll was conducted in February 2026.

The players

Jasmine Crockett

A U.S. Representative from Dallas and a Democratic candidate for the Texas U.S. Senate seat.

Ken Paxton

The current Texas Attorney General and a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate seat.

John Cornyn

The current U.S. Senator from Texas, a Republican.

James Talarico

A Texas state Representative from Austin and a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate seat.

Charlie Kirk

The founder of Turning Point USA, a conservative organization, who was assassinated in the previous year.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“I've been doing the work and fighting on behalf of Texans since before I entered this race. Voters know my leadership and trust me to fight for them. Texas voters are smarter than DC would have you believe. Texans can cut through the noise and won't be swayed by pundits nor podcasters.”

— Jasmine Crockett, U.S. Representative

“I'm up with Latino voters and young people, independents favor me by a double-digit margin, and I am the preferred candidate of working-class voters. This is who we need to rebuild our winning democratic coalition.”

— Jasmine Crockett, U.S. Representative

“Charlie Kirk is an inspiration to millions of people across the world, and I'm blessed to have known him and called him a friend. Right now, we are in a civilizational battle to save America and our future, and we must have conservative warriors willing to go to battle against the radical Left. I'm honored to be the Turning Point Action-endorsed leader to fight for Texas in the Senate, and I will continue to work tirelessly to defend the freedoms of the next generation.”

— Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General

What’s next

The Democratic primary between Crockett and Talarico will likely be a closely watched contest, with the winner facing off against Paxton in the general election.

The takeaway

The poll results suggest a potential shift in the Texas Senate race, with Crockett emerging as a formidable Democratic candidate who could pose a threat to the Republican nominee. This highlights the changing political dynamics in Texas and the importance of the Senate race in the broader national landscape.