Texas GOP Senate Primary Heats Up as Early Voting Begins

Incumbent John Cornyn faces tough challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton

Published on Feb. 19, 2026

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As early voting kicks off in Texas, incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn is fighting for political survival in a contentious primary race against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Polls show Paxton leading Cornyn, raising concerns that Cornyn could become the first incumbent senator since 2012 to be denied renomination. Cornyn and his allies are launching attacks on Paxton, who has faced legal troubles, in hopes of turning GOP voters away. However, Paxton's own electoral success and Trump's strong performance in Texas may give him an edge. The race could head to a runoff, and Cornyn's fate may hinge on securing an endorsement from former President Trump.

Why it matters

The Texas GOP Senate primary is a key early test ahead of the 2024 midterm elections, with national implications. If Cornyn loses, it would be a major upset and shake up the Republican Senate landscape. The race also highlights the ongoing tensions within the GOP between establishment figures like Cornyn and more Trump-aligned candidates like Paxton.

The details

Polls show Paxton leading Cornyn 38% to 31% among likely primary voters, with Rep. Wesley Hunt in third at 17%. Paxton also holds an 11-point lead over Cornyn in a hypothetical runoff. Cornyn and his allies are attacking Paxton over his legal issues, including his impeachment by the Texas House in 2023 and a securities fraud case he agreed to settle. However, Paxton was able to win re-election as Attorney General in 2022, and Republicans are confident that either Democratic candidate, Rep. Jasmine Crockett or state Rep. James Talarico, would be unelectable in the general election.

  • Early voting began in Texas on February 17, 2026.
  • The Texas GOP primary election is scheduled for March 3, 2026.

The players

John Cornyn

The incumbent Republican U.S. Senator from Texas, who is facing a tough primary challenge.

Ken Paxton

The Texas Attorney General, who is leading Cornyn in polls for the GOP Senate nomination.

Jasmine Crockett

A Democratic U.S. Representative who is running for the U.S. Senate in Texas.

James Talarico

A Democratic state Representative who is also running for the U.S. Senate in Texas.

Greg Abbott

The Republican Governor of Texas, who won re-election in 2022.

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What they’re saying

“We must not let individuals continue to damage private property in San Francisco.”

— Robert Jenkins, San Francisco resident (San Francisco Chronicle)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.