Texas AG Ken Paxton Leads GOP Senate Primary Over Cornyn, Hunt

New poll shows Paxton ahead of incumbent Cornyn and Rep. Hunt in Texas Republican Senate primary

Feb. 9, 2026 at 4:39pm

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

A new poll from the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leading the Republican primary race for U.S. Senate, with 38% of likely voters supporting him compared to 31% for incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and 17% for Rep. Wesley Hunt.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate race is expected to be a key battleground in the 2026 midterm elections, with control of the Senate potentially hanging in the balance. Paxton's strong performance in the poll suggests he could pose a serious challenge to the more establishment Cornyn, potentially shaking up the Republican field.

The details

The poll, conducted from January 20-31, surveyed 550 likely Republican primary voters. It found that Paxton had a 72% favorability rating among respondents, compared to 61% for Cornyn and 70% for Hunt. Paxton touted the results on X, saying the "major independent poll" showed him "crushing Cornyn in the primary and outperforming him in the general."

  • The poll was conducted from January 20-31, 2026.

The players

Ken Paxton

The current Attorney General of Texas who is running for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.

John Cornyn

The incumbent U.S. Senator from Texas who is seeking re-election as a Republican.

Wesley Hunt

A Republican U.S. Representative from Texas who is also running for the GOP Senate nomination.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“The pollster also shows Cornyn's numbers becoming much worse since September — despite him lighting tens of millions on fire that should have gone to other Senate races.”

— Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General

What’s next

The Texas Republican Senate primary is scheduled for March 2026. The winner will face the Democratic nominee, likely either U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett or Texas state Rep. James Talarico, in the general election.

The takeaway

This poll suggests a potential upset in the Texas GOP Senate primary, with the more conservative Paxton challenging the more establishment Cornyn. The race will be closely watched as a bellwether for the direction of the Republican Party heading into the 2026 midterms.