Rep. Jasmine Crockett Leads in Texas Democratic Senate Primary Poll

Crockett commands 47% support, ahead of state Rep. James Talarico at 39%

Published on Feb. 9, 2026

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According to a recent poll by the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs, Rep. Jasmine Crockett has emerged as the frontrunner in the race for the Democratic nomination in Texas's 2026 U.S. Senate primary, commanding 47% support among likely Democratic voters. State Rep. James Talarico trails at 39%, with Ahmad Hassan at 2% and 12% of voters undecided.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate race is expected to be a key battleground in the 2026 midterm elections, with the seat currently held by Republican John Cornyn. Crockett's lead in the Democratic primary suggests she could pose a strong challenge to the Republican nominee in the general election.

The details

Crockett's lead is bolstered by her strong favorability among likely Democratic primary voters, with 84% viewing her positively and only 8% unfavorably. She is also well-known among the electorate, with 92% indicating they know enough about her to form an opinion. Talarico trails slightly in name recognition at 85%, with 79% favorable and 6% unfavorable ratings.

  • The poll was conducted in February 2026, with the Texas Democratic primary scheduled for March 2026.

The players

Rep. Jasmine Crockett

A Democratic U.S. Representative from Texas who is the frontrunner in the race for the Democratic nomination in the 2026 Texas Senate primary.

State Rep. James Talarico

A Democratic state Representative in Texas who is trailing Crockett in the race for the Democratic Senate nomination.

Ahmad Hassan

A Democratic candidate in the Texas Senate primary who is polling at 2%.

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What they’re saying

“There are crimes that are committed, not because people are criminals, but because they literally are trying to survive.”

— Rep. Jasmine Crockett (Grounded podcast)

“It is MAGA. It is the specifically MAGA faction responsible for 'all' political violence.”

— Rep. Jasmine Crockett (Televised interview)

What’s next

The Texas Democratic primary election is scheduled for March 2026, with the winner facing the Republican nominee in the general election later that year.

The takeaway

Crockett's lead in the Democratic primary suggests she could be a formidable candidate in the general election, though she faces some controversies around her past financial disclosures and statements. The Texas Senate race will be a key battleground in the 2026 midterms.