Crockett and Paxton Lead in Texas Senate Primary Polls

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A new poll from the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Democratic U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leading their respective primary races for the U.S. Senate in Texas. The survey of likely primary voters was conducted just over a week before the start of early voting on February 17.

Why it matters

The findings represent a shift from recent polls that had the Senate primary races as tight contests. The results could impact voter enthusiasm and turnout in the upcoming primaries, which will help determine the nominees for the general election later this year.

The details

In the Republican primary, Paxton leads incumbent Sen. John Cornyn 38% to 31%, with Rep. Wesley Hunt a distant third at 17%. Paxton also holds advantages over Cornyn in most demographic groups, except among Latino voters. On the Democratic side, Crockett leads state Rep. James Talarico 47% to 39%. Crockett leads Talarico among most key voter groups, except for white voters and those with advanced degrees.

• The poll was conducted between January 20 and January 31, 2026.
• Early voting in the Texas primaries begins on February 17, 2026.

What’s next

The Texas primary elections will be held on March 5, 2026, with early voting starting on February 17. The winners of the Republican and Democratic primaries will advance to the general election in November 2026.