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Texas Senate Race: Talarico and Crockett in Dead Heat, Poll Shows
New poll finds Democratic primary for U.S. Senate seat too close to call
Jan. 30, 2026 at 1:31pm
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A new poll by Texas Public Opinion Research shows state Rep. James Talarico and Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in a statistical dead heat for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Texas, with 38% and 37% support respectively among likely Democratic primary voters. The poll also found that a majority of voters believe a Democrat can win the general election in November.
Why it matters
The Texas Senate race is seen as a key battleground in the 2026 midterm elections, with the winner of the Democratic primary having a chance to flip the seat and potentially shift the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. The close race between Talarico and Crockett highlights the competitive nature of the primary and the desire among Texas Democrats to find a candidate who can appeal to a broad coalition of voters.
The details
The poll, conducted January 14-21, surveyed 1,290 likely Democratic primary voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. It found Talarico leading Crockett 38% to 37%, with 21% of voters undecided. Crockett is performing better among Black voters, non-college-educated voters, and middle-aged voters, while Talarico holds an edge with white, Latino, and college-educated voters. The poll also found that a majority of voters believe a Democrat can win the general election in November, which has not happened in Texas since 1994.
- The poll was conducted between January 14-21, 2026.
The players
James Talarico
A state representative running for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Texas.
Jasmine Crockett
A U.S. Congresswoman running for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Texas.
Luke Warford
The director of Texas Public Opinion Research, the organization that conducted the poll.
What they’re saying
“Crockett and Talarico are running neck-and-neck in the Texas Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Texas Democrats are saying loud and clear that they want a candidate who puts the general election in play by both appealing to Trump voters and energizing the Democratic base.”
— Luke Warford, Director, Texas Public Opinion Research
The takeaway
The close race between Talarico and Crockett in the Texas Democratic Senate primary highlights the competitive nature of the contest and the desire among Texas Democrats to find a candidate who can appeal to a broad coalition of voters, including those who supported former President Trump, in order to have a chance of flipping the seat in the general election.
