Crockett, Talarico in Tight Race for Texas Senate Democratic Primary

Poll shows two candidates in dead heat ahead of March 3 primary election

Jan. 30, 2026 at 5:39pm

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A new Texas Public Opinion Research poll of likely Democratic primary voters in the Texas Senate race shows U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico in a statistical dead heat, with 38% and 37% support respectively. The two candidates represent different wings of the Democratic Party, with Crockett known as a political firebrand and Talarico positioning himself as a more moderate choice.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate race is seen as a key battleground in the fight for control of the U.S. Senate, with the winner of the Democratic primary likely to face off against the Republican nominee in the general election. The close primary race highlights the internal divisions within the Democratic Party as they seek to counter a GOP-controlled federal government.

The details

The poll, which had a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points, surveyed 1,290 likely Democratic primary voters between January 14-21. Among Crockett's supporters, 22% cited 'people first advocacy & fairness/justice' as their top reason for backing her, while 32% of Talarico's supporters said they valued 'character, integrity & relatability.' Over half of respondents ranked affordability and cost of living as a top concern, and 38% listed addressing health care access and costs as a priority.

  • The Texas Democratic primary election will be held on March 3, 2026.
  • The poll was conducted between January 14-21, 2026.

The players

Jasmine Crockett

U.S. Representative and Democratic candidate for the Texas Senate seat.

James Talarico

State Representative and Democratic candidate for the Texas Senate seat.

John Cornyn

Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator for Texas.

Ken Paxton

Texas Attorney General and Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate.

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What they’re saying

“The top two Democratic candidates in Texas's Senate race are neck and neck in a new poll.”

— Sarah Davis, Author

What’s next

The winner of the Democratic primary on March 3 will face the Republican nominee in the general election on November 3, 2026.

The takeaway

This close primary race highlights the ideological divide within the Texas Democratic Party as they seek to regain a Senate seat in a traditionally Republican state. Voters will have a clear choice between Crockett's progressive vision and Talarico's more moderate approach in the March primary.