Texas Beef Prices Rise for Producers and Consumers

Tight cattle supplies and a slow herd rebuild signal higher beef prices ahead

Published on Feb. 9, 2026

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Texas, the nation's largest beef-producing state, has seen its beef cow numbers dip by another 30,000 head, but producers have held back 50,000 more heifers - an 8% increase in replacements that could signal the early stages of a slow rebuild. Experts say strong calf prices and historically tight cattle supplies continue to shape producer decisions about growing their herds, suggesting a bottoming out but no rapid growth. This slower rebuild and tighter cattle supplies will continue to impact the entire beef supply chain, from cow-calf operations to feedlots, packers, and grocery stores.

Why it matters

The changes in the Texas beef herd have significant implications for consumers and producers across the state. Tighter supplies and a gradual rebuild point to the potential for even higher beef prices in the coming years, which could impact household budgets but also provide opportunities for cow-calf producers if they can navigate the market dynamics.

The details

The latest USDA cattle inventory report showed a sharper-than-expected 1% decline in the national beef cow herd. In Texas, the nation's largest beef producer, cow numbers dipped by 30,000 head, but producers held back 50,000 more heifers - an 8% increase in replacements that could signal the early stages of a slow rebuild. Experts say strong calf prices and historically tight cattle supplies are shaping producer decisions, with some weighing short-term returns against long-term herd growth. The rebuild process appears more measured than past post-drought recoveries, with bred-heifer values reaching $4,000-$5,000 creating an incentive for producers to sell rather than hold on to calves.

  • The latest USDA cattle inventory report was released in January 2026.
  • Last week, 500-600-pound steers were selling for $450 per hundredweight on average in Texas, compared to $326 per hundredweight at the same time last year.

The players

David Anderson

AgriLife Extension economist in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics.

Jason Cleere

AgriLife Extension beef cattle specialist in the Texas A&M Department of Animal Science.

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What they’re saying

“That suggests we're bottoming out - holding a few more replacements for future growth. But there's nothing here that suggests rapid growth.”

— David Anderson, AgriLife Extension economist (myplainview.com)

“There's pressure to just sell them and take advantage of the market and then worry about rebuilding next year. Many producers also remember the last rebuild - how fast it went and how fast prices plummeted afterward. They're just a touch more cautious this time around.”

— Jason Cleere, AgriLife Extension beef cattle specialist (myplainview.com)

What’s next

Experts expect calf prices could go even higher in 2026 and 2027 due to tightened supplies, which could further impact consumer beef prices. The year's outlook for Texas will also hinge heavily on how the ongoing drought evolves.

The takeaway

The changes in the Texas beef herd signal a slow and cautious rebuild, with producers weighing short-term profits against long-term herd growth. This dynamic, combined with historically tight cattle supplies, is expected to drive higher beef prices for both producers and consumers in the coming years, highlighting the complex market forces shaping the state's beef industry.