2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 'Somewhat below-average' activity

Researchers cite likely El Niño pattern as driving factor behind prediction of fewer storms.

Apr. 9, 2026 at 4:21pm

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A dramatic, atmospheric landscape painting depicting an approaching storm system, with dark clouds and heavy rain dominating the frame and dwarfing any physical structures or objects in the scene, conveying the overwhelming scale and power of the natural world.An ominous weather system looms over the coastline, a reminder of the raw power of nature that coastal communities must remain vigilant against.Brownsville Today

Researchers at Colorado State University have released their initial forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting 'a somewhat below-average' level of activity. The forecast cites an expected transition to an El Niño climate pattern as the primary factor, which would create unfavorable conditions for storm development due to increased vertical wind shear and slightly cooler sea surface temperatures in parts of the Atlantic.

Why it matters

The Atlantic hurricane season is a major concern for coastal communities, with the potential for devastating impacts from high winds, storm surge, and flooding. This early forecast provides an initial outlook on the expected activity levels, allowing residents and emergency management officials to begin preparing accordingly.

The details

According to the CSU researchers, they are predicting 13 named storms will develop in the Atlantic this season, with 6 becoming hurricanes and 2 reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher). They also forecast a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, as well as the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas.

  • The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1.
  • CSU will issue an updated forecast on June 10, just days after the start of the season.
  • Additional forecast updates are expected on July 8 and August 5.

The players

Colorado State University

A leading research institution that specializes in tropical weather forecasting and issues closely watched seasonal hurricane outlooks.

Amanda Holly

A meteorologist at WFLA News Channel 8 in Tampa, Florida, who provided analysis on the CSU forecast.

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What they’re saying

“Their forecast calls for a slightly below average season with El Niño being a factor for the below average forecast.”

— Amanda Holly, Meteorologist

“Either way, we always say it only takes one storm to make it a bad season, and we should be prepared heading into June 1.”

— Amanda Holly, Meteorologist

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This early hurricane forecast provides a promising outlook for the 2026 Atlantic season, but residents and officials along the coast should still maintain their usual level of preparedness, as it only takes one major storm to have a devastating impact.