Texas Basketball Bubble Watch: NCAA Tournament Odds, Path to the Dance

Longhorns need strong SEC Tournament showing to keep March Madness hopes alive

Mar. 3, 2026 at 2:15am

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Texas has an uphill battle to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament after an up-and-down regular season, but the Longhorns still have a path to the Big Dance if they can impress in the SEC Tournament.

Why it matters

Texas' potential tournament miss would be ironic after the school fired Rodney Terry last year for failing to win in March. New head coach Sean Miller needs to get the Longhorns back to the NCAA Tournament in his first season to avoid a disappointing start in Austin.

The details

Texas is 18-11 overall and 9-7 in SEC play, sitting ninth in the conference standings. The Longhorns have a respectable 5-8 record against Quad 1 opponents, but their overall resume is lacking. Texas needs to finish the regular season strong and then make a deep run in the SEC Tournament to earn an NCAA Tournament bid.

  • Texas has one regular season game remaining against Oklahoma on March 7.
  • The SEC Tournament takes place in Nashville in mid-March.

The players

Sean Miller

The new head coach of the Texas Longhorns, hired after the school fired Rodney Terry.

Rodney Terry

The former head coach of the Texas Longhorns who was fired for failing to win in March.

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What’s next

Texas will need to win its final regular season game against Oklahoma on March 7 and then make a deep run in the SEC Tournament in mid-March to earn an NCAA Tournament bid.

The takeaway

Sean Miller's first season as Texas' head coach could be defined by whether he can guide the Longhorns back to the NCAA Tournament after they missed out last year under Rodney Terry. Texas has work to do, but the path is clear if the team can finish the season strong.