South Texas Could Hit 90 This Week, But How Close to Austin?

A surge of mid-February heat could push 90-degree temperatures into South Texas, but Austin is likely to stay just below that mark.

Published on Feb. 16, 2026

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A strong upper-level ridge will bring warm, dry winds from northern Mexico, sending temperatures soaring in South Texas this week. While Austin is expected to see highs in the mid-to-upper 80s, the 90-degree mark may only be reached as close as the Interstate 10 corridor, roughly 45 miles south of the city. Austin's coolest day will be Monday, with temperatures climbing through the week before a cold front arrives on Friday, dropping highs back into the 70s.

Why it matters

This early-season heat wave is an unusual weather pattern for mid-February in Central Texas, and highlights the region's increasing vulnerability to extreme temperature swings due to climate change. While Austin itself may avoid the 90-degree mark this week, the proximity of that heat to the city underscores the need for continued preparedness and adaptation measures.

The details

A strong upper-level ridge, described as February's version of a 'heat dome', will park over the region, sending warm, dry winds from northern Mexico. This setup will keep rain chances near zero even as weak cold fronts approach. Monday will be the coolest day, with highs only reaching the upper 70s, but temperatures will climb through the week, potentially peaking near 87 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front on Friday is expected to drop highs back into the 70s for the weekend.

  • On Monday, highs will reach the upper 70s, a nearly 30-degree swing from the mid-40s start.
  • Tuesday afternoon will see highs in the lower 80s as southwesterly winds continue.
  • Wednesday and Thursday are expected to bring mid- to upper 80s, likely peaking near 87 degrees.
  • A cold front on Friday will drop highs back into the 70s for the weekend.

The players

Austin

The capital city of Texas, located in the Central Texas region.

South Texas

The southern region of Texas, generally considered to be the area south of San Antonio.

Interstate 10

A major east-west interstate highway that passes within 45 miles of Austin, near the city of Seguin.

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What’s next

Several weak cold fronts next week are expected to keep Austin's temperatures in the 70s, still above normal for this time of year, but likely preventing the city from reaching the 90-degree mark before March 1.

The takeaway

This early-season heat wave in South Texas, with 90-degree temperatures potentially reaching as close as 45 miles from Austin, underscores the region's increasing vulnerability to extreme temperature swings due to climate change. While Austin itself may avoid the 90-degree mark this week, the proximity of that heat to the city highlights the need for continued preparedness and adaptation measures to address the impacts of a warming climate.