Tesla's Robotaxi Fleet Faces Challenges Despite Musk's Optimistic Projections

Investors must weigh the risks and rewards as the company ramps up production of autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots.

Published on Feb. 10, 2026

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk has made bold claims about the rapid expansion of the company's robotaxi fleet, but independent reports and analysts suggest the rollout may face significant challenges. While Musk has touted the potential for hundreds of unsupervised robotaxis in the coming months, the reality appears more complex, with safety concerns and regulatory hurdles potentially slowing the pace of deployment. As Tesla doubles down on AI-powered initiatives like robotaxis and Optimus humanoid robots, investors must carefully consider whether the risk-reward proposition justifies the company's lofty valuation.

Why it matters

Tesla's success with its robotaxi fleet is crucial to the company's long-term growth strategy, as it shifts focus from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence. However, the ambitious timeline and claims made by Musk have raised skepticism, as the company must navigate safety, regulatory, and production challenges to bring its autonomous driving technology to scale.

The details

According to Musk, Tesla has already launched robotaxis in Austin, Texas and the San Francisco Bay Area, with plans to expand to over half the United States by the end of 2026. However, independent tracking suggests only a small fraction of these vehicles are operating without human supervision. Additionally, reports have raised concerns about the crash rate among Tesla's robotaxi fleet. The company also faces delays in the production of its specialized 'cybercabs' designed to help scale the robotaxi business, as it redirects resources to the Optimus humanoid robot project.

  • Tesla launched robotaxis in select markets, including Austin and San Francisco, in 2025.
  • Musk stated during Tesla's Q4 2025 earnings call that the company expects to have robotaxis in 'probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval'.
  • Tesla plans to begin production of its specialized 'cybercabs' for the robotaxi fleet in April 2026.

The players

Elon Musk

The CEO of Tesla, who has made bold claims about the rapid expansion of the company's robotaxi fleet.

Robotaxi Tracker

An independent project that tracks Tesla's robotaxi deployment, reporting that only about four of the 58 robotaxis in Austin are operating without supervision.

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What they’re saying

“Musk guiding for a surge in robotaxi vehicles”

— Bram Berkowitz, Author (fool.com)

“The claims about fully unsupervised robotaxis have also been challenged by sites like Electrek.”

— Bram Berkowitz, Author (fool.com)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.