Austin Homes at High Risk During Heat Wave Blackouts

New study finds 85% of single-family homes pose significant danger to elderly residents if power goes out during extreme heat.

Published on Feb. 10, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

A new study led by researchers at The University of Texas at Austin found that if the power were to go out during a heatwave, 85% of Austin's single-family homes would pose significant risk of death to an elderly person inside. For younger populations, the current risk is about 15%. The study used detailed home data to model heat risk for each residence, finding the Rundberg and St. John neighborhoods are the most vulnerable overall.

Why it matters

This research helps pinpoint the locations in Austin that would benefit most from heat mitigation efforts, such as adding cooling centers or home weatherization programs. As climate change increases the frequency of heatwaves, understanding the indoor heat risk for specific buildings will become even more important for public safety.

The details

Researchers assessed heat risk for each of Austin's 213,626 single-family homes by replicating the conditions of a historical three-day heatwave where temperatures exceeded 110°F, simulating a concurrent energy grid blackout, and then determining the survivability for different age groups. They matched each home to national housing data to model attributes like age, windows, and construction that impact indoor heat buildup.

  • The study was published in February 2026 in the journal Building and Environment.

The players

The University of Texas at Austin

The university where the researchers who conducted this study are based.

UT-City CoLab

An initiative that brings together UT researchers, Austin city officials, and community members to build climate resilience.

Dev Niyogi

A professor at the UT Jackson School of Geosciences and co-lead of the UT-City CoLab.

Marc Coudert

The climate resilience and adaptation manager for Austin Climate Action & Resilience.

Zoltan Nagy

The corresponding author of the study, who conducted the research when he was an assistant professor at UT's Cockrell School of Engineering.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“We are elevating the problem. Rather than saying, 'Austin is hot. We need to cool it,' we're saying, 'Here's where we need to focus. And here are the kind of solutions we can do.”

— Dev Niyogi, Professor, UT Jackson School of Geosciences

“This allows us to know what's actually happening within the neighborhoods, and who's most vulnerable, without having to go door-to-door.”

— Marc Coudert, Climate Resilience and Adaptation Manager, Austin Climate Action & Resilience

“What happens inside depends very much how your house was built. If you have good windows, and it's well-constructed, it takes a long time until the heat builds up. But if you have cracks all over the place, and it's an old house with single-pane windows, then it's a lot faster for the house to heat up.”

— Zoltan Nagy

What’s next

The city of Austin plans to use this data to identify the most vulnerable neighborhoods and implement targeted heat mitigation efforts, such as adding cooling centers and home weatherization programs.

The takeaway

This study highlights the critical importance of understanding indoor heat risk, not just outdoor temperatures, when it comes to protecting public health during extreme heat events. As climate change increases the frequency of heatwaves, this type of granular, building-level analysis will be essential for cities to identify and assist their most vulnerable residents.