Texas Senate Race Sees Tight Primary Contests, Potential Runoff

New poll shows GOP race could go to a runoff, while Democrats remain close

Feb. 9, 2026 at 4:07pm

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A new poll from the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs shows tight races in both the Republican and Democratic primaries for the Texas U.S. Senate seat. On the Republican side, Attorney General Ken Paxton is leading the field with 38% support, followed by incumbent Senator John Cornyn at 31% and Representative Wesley Hunt at 17%. The poll suggests the GOP race could head to a runoff. On the Democratic side, Representative Jasmine Crockett is leading Austin state Rep. James Talarico 47% to 39%, though the race is within the margin of error.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate race is expected to be highly competitive in the general election, and the results of the primary will set the stage for that contest. The poll results indicate the potential for a divisive Republican primary that could weaken the eventual nominee, while the close Democratic race suggests a hard-fought battle to determine who will face off against the Republican in November.

The details

The Hobby School poll surveyed 1,502 self-identified likely voters, with 550 Republicans and 550 Democrats responding about their party's Senate primary. On the Republican side, Paxton led with 38% support, followed by Cornyn at 31% and Hunt at 17%. The poll suggests the race could head to a runoff, as one candidate needs a majority to avoid that. For Democrats, Crockett led Talarico 47% to 39%, though the race is within the 4-point margin of error. The poll also tested general election matchups, showing the Democratic candidates running close to both Paxton and Cornyn.

  • The poll was conducted from January 20-31, 2026.
  • Early voting in the Texas primary begins on February 17, 2026.
  • The Texas primary election is scheduled for March 3, 2026.

The players

Ken Paxton

The Republican Attorney General of Texas who is running for the U.S. Senate.

John Cornyn

The incumbent four-term Republican U.S. Senator from Texas.

Wesley Hunt

A Republican U.S. Representative from Houston who is also running for the U.S. Senate.

Jasmine Crockett

A Democratic U.S. Representative who is running for the U.S. Senate.

James Talarico

A Democratic state Representative from Austin who is also running for the U.S. Senate.

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What they’re saying

“This independent poll makes crystal clear what my campaign has known all along: John Cornyn is deeply disliked by Republican voters, and that would make him a major liability in November.”

— Ken Paxton, Republican Attorney General of Texas (statesman.com)

“This poll just confirms what we've known from the beginning, that voters know and support the congresswoman, and that she is in the best position to defeat whoever emerges from the Republican primary.”

— Karrol Rimal, Spokesman for Jasmine Crockett's campaign (statesman.com)

What’s next

The Texas primary election will be held on March 3, 2026, with early voting beginning on February 17. If no candidate wins a majority in the primary, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff election.

The takeaway

The Texas Senate race is shaping up to be highly competitive, with tight primary contests on both the Republican and Democratic sides. The potential for a divisive GOP primary and the close Democratic race suggest the general election will be a hard-fought battle for this crucial Senate seat.