Study Warns Extreme Heat to Double by 2050

Oxford researchers say half the world's population will face dangerously high temperatures in the next 25 years.

Jan. 31, 2026 at 3:31am

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A new study by researchers at the University of Oxford warns that the number of people living with extreme heat is set to double by 2050 if average global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The report predicts the largest affected populations will be in India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Philippines, with the Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Laos, and Brazil seeing the most significant increases in dangerously hot temperatures.

Why it matters

The projected increase in extreme heat will lead to a significant rise in energy demand for cooling systems and corresponding emissions. It also predicts demand for heating in countries like Canada and Switzerland will decrease, as temperatures continue to rise. Even a moderate increase in temperature could have disproportionately severe impacts on infrastructure and communities predominantly designed for cold conditions.

The details

The study found that warming to 2 degrees Celsius would lead to a doubling of uncomfortably hot days in Austria and Canada, and a 150% increase in the U.K. It also warns that the most vulnerable groups, such as the elderly, low-income residents, and outdoor/agricultural workers, are often forced into more movement, not less, during the most dangerous heatwaves.

  • The study's findings were first published in January 2026 in the journal Nature Sustainability.
  • The report warns that half the world's population will be living with extreme heat by 2050 if average global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels over the next 25 years.

The players

University of Oxford

The research institution that conducted the study on the projected increase in extreme heat worldwide.

Dr. Radhika Khosla

Associate professor and leader of the Oxford Martin Future of Cooling Programme, who said the report's findings should be a 'wake-up call'.

Kiff Gallagher

Executive director of the Global Heat Reduction Initiative (GHR) at SCS Global Services, who said the new report reinforces what communities already feel.

University of Southampton

The institution that conducted a separate study warning that wealth and age create a hidden divide in people's ability to withstand heatwaves.

Dr. Haiyan Liu

Lead author of the University of Southampton study, who said the results show the most vulnerable are often forced into more movement, not less, during the most dangerous compound heatwaves.

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What they’re saying

“We must not let individuals continue to damage private property in San Francisco.”

— Robert Jenkins, San Francisco resident (San Francisco Chronicle)

“Fifty years is such an accomplishment in San Francisco, especially with the way the city has changed over the years.”

— Gordon Edgar, grocery employee (Instagram)

What’s next

The Cool Cities Accelerator initiative, launched by the C40 Cities group with support from The Rockefeller Foundation, will bring together 33 founding cities to help protect residents, safeguard economies, and redesign cities for a hotter future.

The takeaway

This study serves as a wake-up call about the urgent need to address the growing threat of extreme heat worldwide, which will require comprehensive solutions ranging from infrastructure upgrades and urban planning to public health interventions and emissions reductions.