Crockett and Talarico in Tight Race for Texas Senate Democratic Primary

New poll shows the two candidates in a dead heat with less than 3 weeks until early voting begins.

Jan. 29, 2026 at 5:07pm

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A new poll from Texas Public Opinion Research shows U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and State Rep. James Talarico in a tight race for the Texas Senate Democratic primary, with Crockett leading Talarico by just one percentage point at 38% to 37%. The poll of 1,290 likely Democratic primary voters had a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points, indicating the race is essentially a toss-up with 21% of voters still undecided.

Why it matters

The winner of the Democratic primary will go on to face the eventual Republican nominee in November, when Democrats are hoping to flip the Senate seat blue for the first time in over 30 years. The close race between Crockett and Talarico, who are both seen as rising stars in the party, suggests Texas Democrats are looking for a candidate who can appeal to both Trump voters and the party's base.

The details

The poll found Crockett leading among Black, non-college-educated and middle-aged voters, while Talarico led with white, Latino and college-educated voters. Talarico had a 14-point lead among white voters and a 10-point lead among Latino voters, though a quarter of Latino voters were undecided. Crockett had the support of 75% of Black voters surveyed, with just 12% undecided. Younger voters were roughly split between the two candidates, while voters between 35-64 favored Crockett and those 65+ narrowly backed Talarico.

  • The poll was conducted from January 14-21, 2026.
  • Early voting for the March 3 primary begins in less than 3 weeks.

The players

Jasmine Crockett

U.S. Representative from Dallas, seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party.

James Talarico

State Representative from Austin, also considered a rising Democratic figure in Texas.

John Cornyn

Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator from Texas, facing primary challenges.

Ken Paxton

Texas Attorney General, challenging Cornyn in the Republican primary.

Wesley Hunt

U.S. Representative from Houston, also challenging Cornyn in the Republican primary.

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What they’re saying

“Crockett and Talarico are running neck-and-neck in the Texas Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Texas Democrats are saying loud and clear that they want a candidate who puts the general election in play by both appealing to Trump voters and energizing the Democratic base.”

— Luke Warford, Director, Texas Public Opinion Research (Texas Tribune)

What’s next

The March 3 primary election will determine which Democrat will face the Republican nominee in the November general election.

The takeaway

The tight race between Crockett and Talarico highlights the desire among Texas Democrats for a candidate who can appeal to a broad range of voters, from Trump supporters to the party's base, as they aim to flip the Senate seat in November.