Texas Migrant Busing Boosted Trump in 2024 Election

Study finds GOP turnout increased in counties that received migrant buses from Texas

Mar. 11, 2026 at 7:33am

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A new study from the USC Price School of Public Policy and the University of North Texas found that Texas' program of busing newly-arrived immigrants to Democratic-led cities boosted former President Donald Trump's vote share by more than 3 percentage points in affected counties during the 2024 election. The study also found that the busing program increased Republican turnout, particularly among voters concerned about crime and immigration.

Why it matters

The findings highlight the growing role of state-led immigration policies in shaping national elections, as well as the enduring power of perceived threats from racial minorities to sway voter sentiment. As immigration enforcement is expected to be a top issue heading into the 2026 midterm elections, this study provides important insights into how such policies can impact electoral outcomes.

The details

From 2022 to 2024, Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott transported more than 100,000 migrants to six cities led by Democratic mayors that had 'sanctuary' policies protecting undocumented immigrants. Researchers analyzed county-level election data and exit polls, comparing results from 2016, 2020 and 2024. They found that Trump's vote share grew by over 3 percentage points in counties that received the migrant buses, driven by concerns over crime among swing voters. Republicans were also more likely to turn out in these areas, particularly if they held concerns about immigration.

  • The busing program ran from 2022 to 2024.
  • The study analyzed election results from 2016, 2020 and 2024.

The players

Greg Abbott

The Republican governor of Texas who implemented the migrant busing program.

Donald Trump

The former U.S. president whose vote share increased in counties that received the migrant buses.

Joe Biden

The former U.S. president who lost support in 2024 in counties that received the migrant buses.

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What they’re saying

“Texas Governor Abbott and President Trump were able to activate and mobilize anti-immigrant sentiments that had a measurable impact on the outcome of the presidential election.”

— David Brady, USC Price School Professor

“Our study confirms longstanding sociological work on minority threat, showing that many individuals react against the perception that they are in closer proximity to minority groups — in this case, by voting for candidates who broadly oppose immigration.”

— William Scarborough, University of North Texas Associate Professor

What’s next

The study's findings are expected to be a key factor in the 2026 midterm elections, as immigration enforcement is anticipated to be a top issue for voters.

The takeaway

This study demonstrates how state-level immigration policies can have a significant impact on national elections, highlighting the power of perceived threats from racial minorities to sway voter sentiment and turnout. As the 2026 midterms approach, these findings will likely shape political strategies and messaging around immigration issues.