CattleFax Forecasts Tight Beef Supplies, Strong Demand Ahead

Industry experts see prolonged cattle herd tightening and record-high retail beef prices

Published on Feb. 25, 2026

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The U.S. beef industry is facing a period of historically tight supplies and record-strong demand, according to analysis from CattleFax presented at the NCBA Cattle Con 2026 in Nashville, Tennessee. Factors like weather, the closure of the U.S.-Mexico border, and shifts in the beef cow herd and dairy sectors are shaping the industry's outlook for the next several years.

Why it matters

The tight beef supplies and high demand are driving up retail beef prices to historic highs, which could put pressure on consumers. However, the strong demand also means high profitability for cattle producers across the supply chain, from feedyards to cow-calf operations.

The details

CattleFax expects the beef cow herd to begin 2026 about 180,000 head higher than the 2025 cycle low, marking a slow and gradual herd rebuilding process. Weather has been a key factor, with producers cautious about expansion despite strong prices. The prolonged herd tightening has been offset somewhat by higher carcass weights and more fed cattle coming from the dairy industry. However, the industry has struggled to keep enough heifers back to rebuild the herd, meaning supplies will stay tighter for longer. The reopening of the U.S.-Mexico border will be a crucial factor, as it could bring in over 1 million additional cattle and shift the leverage between cattle feeders and packers.

  • The beef cow herd is expected to begin 2026 about 180,000 head higher, marking 2025 as the cycle low.
  • Over the last two years, carcass weights have gone up a combined 52 pounds, offsetting about 2 million head in harvest.

The players

Kevin Good

An analyst at CattleFax who presented the industry outlook at the NCBA Cattle Con 2026 in Nashville.

Mike Murphy

An analyst at CattleFax who discussed the price outlook and the leverage between cattle feeders and packers.

Randy Blach

The CEO of CattleFax, who urged producers to recognize both the strength and fragility of the current cattle market.

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What they’re saying

“We'd like to see a couple wet years back to back before really go ahead and expand.”

— Kevin Good, Analyst, CattleFax (agproud.com)

“Retail prices today are the highest they've been going back 50-plus years.”

— Kevin Good, Analyst, CattleFax (agproud.com)

“A 600,000 change in slaughter is to be worth roughly 1 percent in terms of that leverage. A 1 percent change in leverage is worth almost 4 dollars to the fed cattle market.”

— Mike Murphy, Analyst, CattleFax (agproud.com)

“Remember when half the product we were producing was Select. One or two out of every four steaks we produced was not a quality eating experience and y'all fixed it.”

— Randy Blach, CEO, CattleFax (agproud.com)

“But don't get too complacent. We are in a time and in a market that's been heavily influenced by government policy. It's volatile. That can be very unforgiving. So do be careful.”

— Randy Blach, CEO, CattleFax (agproud.com)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

The U.S. beef industry is facing a delicate balance of tight supplies and strong demand, driven by factors like weather, border policy, and industry shifts. While this has led to record profitability for producers, it also raises concerns about affordability and sustainability for consumers in the long run.