Trump Touted Crime Decline, But Experts Say Data Lacks Context

Former president celebrated 'big success' of National Guard deployments, but analysts say trends are more complex.

Published on Feb. 25, 2026

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In his State of the Union address, former President Donald Trump claimed credit for historic declines in the U.S. murder rate and reductions in crime in cities like Memphis, New Orleans, and Washington, D.C. However, experts say Trump's statements lack important context and that the drivers behind the crime trends are more complex than he suggested.

Why it matters

Trump's claims about his administration's impact on crime rates are politically charged and could influence public perception of his legacy on law enforcement and public safety issues. Accurately understanding the nuances of crime data is important for evaluating the effectiveness of different policy approaches.

The details

While violent crime has generally been declining in the U.S. since the 1990s, the COVID-19 pandemic led to a surge in murders in 2024 before the trend began to reverse. Experts say it's difficult to attribute the recent declines to specific actions taken by the Trump administration, such as National Guard deployments to cities like Memphis and New Orleans. In Washington, D.C., where Trump said there is 'almost no crime anymore,' the data shows a significant drop in violent crime and homicides, but analysts caution against directly linking this to the federal deployment.

  • In late September 2025, the Memphis Safe Task Force, made up of the National Guard and federal agencies, arrived in the city at Trump's direction.
  • In August 2025, Trump deployed the National Guard to combat crime in Washington, D.C.

The players

Donald Trump

The former president who touted declines in crime and murder rates during his administration.

Jeff Asher

Co-founder of the data analytics firm AH Datalytics, who provided analysis on the limitations of Trump's claims about crime trends.

Adam Gelb

President and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, who commented on the complex drivers behind the recent decline in homicides.

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What they’re saying

“I'm not sure I'd agree quite with the framing. And a lot of the comments are, I'd say, imprecise and probably lack the context of what was happening in terms of the nation's crime trends really since 2023.”

— Jeff Asher, Co-founder, AH Datalytics

“We're seeing big shifts in criminal justice policies and programs, big advances in crime fighting technologies and big social, economic and cultural shifts happening, all of which could be contributing.”

— Adam Gelb, President and CEO, Council on Criminal Justice

What’s next

Analysts say it will be important to closely examine forthcoming FBI crime data to better understand the full context behind the recent declines in murder and violent crime rates across the country.

The takeaway

While the U.S. has seen encouraging reductions in crime and homicides, the drivers behind these trends are complex and cannot be easily attributed to specific policy actions taken by the previous administration. Accurately assessing the factors influencing public safety requires a nuanced look at the data.