2026 Cotton Outlook: Declining Stocks Could Provide Price Support

Economic pressures remain, but lower production may boost prices

Published on Feb. 20, 2026

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The U.S. cotton industry is facing another challenging year in 2026 due to low prices, high production costs, and weak demand. However, the outlook suggests declining global cotton stocks could provide some price support, despite continued economic pressures and uncertainty around trade policy.

Why it matters

The cotton industry is a major economic driver in the U.S., particularly in the Cotton Belt region. Understanding the industry's outlook is crucial for growers, manufacturers, and policymakers to make informed decisions. Lower cotton prices and production could impact rural communities and the broader agricultural economy.

The details

The National Cotton Council projects 2026 U.S. cotton acreage to decrease by 3.2% to 9.0 million acres, reflecting the economic challenges facing growers. Harvested area is estimated at 7.1 million acres, with a 21.3% abandonment rate. This is expected to result in a 12.7 million bale cotton crop. U.S. mill consumption is projected to decline to 1.55 million bales, while exports are expected to increase, leading to a drop in ending stocks to 3.5 million bales. Globally, cotton production is estimated to decline to 114.1 million bales, while consumption rises to 120.0 million bales, reducing world ending stocks to 69.8 million bales - the lowest level since 2016 outside of China.

  • The 2026 cotton season is approaching.
  • The NCC Annual Planting Intentions survey was conducted in the first quarter of 2025.

The players

National Cotton Council

A trade association representing the U.S. cotton industry, including growers, ginners, merchants, cooperatives, and manufacturers.

Dr. Jody Campiche

The Vice President of Economics & Policy Analysis at the National Cotton Council.

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What they’re saying

“If world consumption can overcome the headwinds from the sluggish global economy and cheaper man-made fibers, declining stocks in the 2026 balance sheet could provide some support for prices.”

— Dr. Jody Campiche, Vice President, Economics & Policy Analysis, National Cotton Council (americanagnetwork.com)

The takeaway

The U.S. cotton industry faces continued economic pressures, but the potential for declining global cotton stocks could provide some price support in 2026, if demand can overcome broader economic headwinds. Growers and industry stakeholders will need to navigate these complex market dynamics in the coming year.