Social Security Expert Warns Trump Policy May Speed up Cuts for Millions

Ending Social Security taxes could threaten the very fund that is supplying their monthly payments.

Published on Mar. 4, 2026

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A Social Security expert is warning that some of President Donald Trump's tax policies could harm Social Security beneficiaries in the long run. Ending federal taxes on Social Security could lead to more benefits for recipients in the short term, but it risks the entire fund the Social Security Administration relies on, which is already set to become insolvent in the early 2030s.

Why it matters

More than 70 million Americans rely on Social Security benefits each month—including survivor and disability recipients, who also often depend on the social safety net program for the bulk of their income. While retirees spent their working lives paying into the trust, ending taxes could threaten the very fund that is supplying their monthly payments.

The details

Martha Shedden, the president and a co-founder of the National Association of Registered Social Security Analysts, told Fortune that Trump's tax change would "further increase the time that we're going to need to cut benefits." The ratio of workers to beneficiaries is becoming increasingly alarming, now at two or three workers for each beneficiary. As more baby boomers retire with not as many U.S. workers keeping the Social Security program afloat, the SSA's trust funds will likely be depleted by the end of 2032, at which point the SSA would have enough money to pay out roughly 80 percent of promised benefits.

  • The Social Security Administration's trust funds will likely be depleted by the end of 2032.
  • At that point, if nothing changes, the SSA would have enough money to pay out roughly 80 percent of promised benefits.

The players

Martha Shedden

The president and a co-founder of the National Association of Registered Social Security Analysts.

Donald Trump

The former President of the United States who proposed ending federal taxes on Social Security.

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What they’re saying

“I'm an optimist. I have studied Social Security now for over 15 years, and I know it is so complicated, but the advantage of that is there are so many rules and calculations that there are many, many little tweaks that can be made.”

— Martha Shedden, President and Co-founder, National Association of Registered Social Security Analysts (Fortune)

“The short-term help could turn into a long-term nightmare unless a strategy is reached to bring in additional revenue to keep Social Security solvent. There's a genuine belief Congress will reach a solution, but as the expected date of trust fund depletion comes near, it's easy to see why many Americans are growing concerned.”

— Alex Beene, Financial Literacy Instructor, University of Tennessee at Martin (Newsweek)

“If more revenue sources disappear, the social contract around Social Security changes. Americans should plan with the assumption that future benefits may be smaller than currently projected.”

— Kevin Thompson, Finance Expert and Founder, 9i Capital Group (Newsweek)

What’s next

As the countdown nears for the SSA's funds to become insolvent, Congress will likely step in to fix the matter, experts say.

The takeaway

This case highlights the complex and precarious financial situation facing the Social Security system, with experts warning that Trump's proposed tax changes could further accelerate the depletion of the trust fund and lead to reduced benefits for millions of Americans who rely on this critical social safety net program.