ESPN Analyst Predicts Tennessee Basketball Sweet 16 Run

Jay Bilas projects the Vols to upset Virginia before falling to Iowa State in the Midwest Region Semifinal.

Mar. 17, 2026 at 2:51pm

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ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas is high on Tennessee's chances in the upcoming NCAA Tournament, projecting the Vols to make a run to the Sweet 16 before falling to Iowa State. Bilas has Tennessee upsetting three-seed Virginia in the Round of 32 to advance to the Midwest Region Semifinal in Chicago.

Why it matters

Tennessee is making its eighth straight NCAA Tournament appearance, but the Vols enter as a six-seed, their lowest seeding over that stretch. Bilas' projection of a Sweet 16 run would exceed expectations for a team that lost four of its final six games entering the Big Dance.

The details

Bilas has Tennessee facing the winner of the First Four game between 11-seeds SMU and Miami (Ohio) in the first round, with the Vols advancing to face three-seed Virginia in the Round of 32. Bilas believes Tennessee's physical style and offensive rebounding will be the difference in upsetting the Cavaliers. However, he sees the Vols' run ending against an Iowa State team that is one of the nation's best defensive squads.

  • Tennessee is making its eighth straight NCAA Tournament appearance.
  • The Vols lost four of their final six games entering the NCAA Tournament.

The players

Jay Bilas

ESPN's leading college basketball commentator and analyst.

Ja'Kobi Gillespie

A key addition to the Tennessee basketball team this season.

Nate Ament

Tennessee player who returned for the SEC Tournament after missing time due to injury.

Joshua Jefferson

Star forward for Iowa State, one of the nation's top defensive teams.

Rick Barnes

Head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers basketball team.

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What they’re saying

“Take SMU in the First Four, but neither will get past Tennessee in the first round. Ja'Kobi Gillespie has been a great addition to that team, and as long as the Vols play with the kind of defensive intensity that they usually do under coach Rick Barnes, I think they get past either team.”

— Jay Bilas, ESPN Analyst (rockytopinsider.com)

“Virginia can protect the paint and the 3-point line, but Tennessee is physical and pounds the offensive glass. The Vols are better with Nate Ament in the lineup, and he returned for the SEC tournament. If he can approach his season averages of 17.5 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, alongside Gillespie's talent, they should take it.”

— Jay Bilas, ESPN Analyst (rockytopinsider.com)

“Coach Rick Barnes' Volunteers are always standouts on defense, but here, they meet their match. The Cyclones are one of the five best defensive teams in the nation. If they can force Tennessee into turnovers — the Vols have not been great at taking care of the basketball late — they'll win this game. Iowa State is the real deal.”

— Jay Bilas, ESPN Analyst (rockytopinsider.com)

What’s next

The NCAA Tournament bracket will be officially announced on Selection Sunday, March 17, 2026.

The takeaway

Despite Tennessee's recent struggles, ESPN's top college basketball analyst Jay Bilas believes the Vols have the talent and defensive intensity to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, projecting them to upset Virginia before falling to a stifling Iowa State squad in the Sweet 16.